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This would be, by my recollection, the first time the Padres have ever shown up this high in farm system rankings. Keith Law credits the Padres with incredible depth and high-floor guys. Basically, our youngsters will be big league players. Keep in mind, I loved me some KT, but we can all agree that the big leaguers that he drafted were psychos. Like literally crazy.
He drafted toolsy, skillsy, psychotic dudes.
I, for one, am willing to trade Crazy for Professional.
I'm reading all of this commentary about how this is a one and done deal... This was "all" Jed Hoyer's doing, but let's be honest. After Josh Byrnes' first full year as Diamondbacks' GM, here's where he had the Diamondbacks minor league system. The year after, there was a dip, but that's what happens when you graduate a Stephen Drew and a Carlos Quentin (and incidentally still have a Juston Upton and Chris Young in the mix).
So no. I don't believe that this farm system was all Jed Hoyer's doing. Is is "mostly" his doing? Maybe, but it's also hard to imagine that Josh Byrnes could possibly screw this up. Consider this, BeyondTheBoxScore says our window is 2014 for our three B+ prospects to all be up at the same time, but on top of that, we have 6 picks of the first 70 in this years draft from all of the churning of one year contracts over the last couple years. As long as they draft strong and avoid the psychos, this should continue.
How quickly will we see the results? Well, Yonder Alonso is slated to start this season, so we'll see some of the results right away. Depending on how Hundley works out, we have Grandal and Hedges over the next couple years. We should be able to see big league results right away, but everybody's best guess is for things to really start clicking 2013-2014.
Who will be unhappy with this? Anybody who wants a payroll starting with 6 or 7. We will be running a very modest payroll from the looks of things. If you get off on big payroll, you have absolutely no business rooting for the Padres for the next 5 seasons. The Padres 2012-2017 is all about young talent. Let the Dodgers and Giants slug it out with their hundred million dollar payrolls, because by the looks of things, the experts don't think we need it.
It's a pretty good time to be a Padres fan.
1 recs | 42 comments
What’s a high-floor guy?
matthewverygood - February 9, 2012
Compliment of high ceiling
High ceiling suggests that there’s a chance that the dude could be a rock star or fail miserably. High floor means that the guys are projected to, at a minimum, be a big leaguer, which can’t be said about most guys in the minor leagues.
Dex - February 9, 2012
Technically
You could be a high ceiling without the “fail miserably” part. You could be both a high floor and a high ceiling guy. That’s a very rare prospect. Stephen Strasburg (injury chances aside) would be that type of prospect.
Wonko - February 9, 2012
I was going to comment on this issue
Yes, we have a ton of depth in our system filled with B and C prospects. While I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer, the thing that still worries me is the lack of some star power. Don’t get me wrong, big leaguers coming out of the system are better than no big leaguers coming out of the system, but a bunch of Nick Hundley type players coming up isn’t going to translate into wins.
It’s easy to compare ourselves to the Rays (small payroll, they’ve had a top farm system lately) however the big difference at this point are the stars. Rays had guys like Longoria and Price, Hellickson and Moore. At this point the closest to one of those four guys is maybe a Wieland or an Erlin is on par with a Hellickson.
Now we do have some guys that look like they can turn into stars. The experts say that Rymer Liriano has all the tools and could translate into an allstar, but he’s only slated to start high A. Keith Law has Joe Ross in the high 40s which is as high as I’ve seen him but at this points those are just projections. We need an Austin Hedges to tun into a Mike Piazza, not a Brad Ausmus. Hopefully Cory Spangenberg turns into a .300 hitter that plays everyday at 2b; too hard to tell at this point though. What we don’t need is a guy hitting .260.
Now the flip side to all this depth and the lack of a top tier guy is the possibility of trading some depth for a top tier guy a la Reds getting Latos.That in turn will help increase the payroll as the guy we would be trading for would most likely have a higher payroll then three of four prospects. I hope we’re eventually at a point where we can do this.
All that being said, it definitely is a good time to be a Padres fan. Whether some of these guys pan out or not, having the #1 system is better than not having the #1 system. I’m looking forward to watching these guys come through the system and will definitely be making it out for a few Storm games this year.
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
take a look at minor leauge baseball on SB nation
and they ranked the top players in the game today, and then looked at how they were ranked. B+ was the most typical ranking, with more C+ guys than A guys. It probably more of a sample size (being way more C guys than A guys), but what does jump out is how many of the top players were B type prospects. Being rated B doesn’t mean you won’t be an MVP candidate.
Ron Mexico - February 9, 2012
I agree
I was just trying to make a point that we need a guy like Rymer Liriano to develop into a star and not a Will Venable type player.
B/C players can also turn into nothings, that’s what scares me.
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
I don't think there's any reason to be scared...
To be scared, you’re following the logic: “B/C guys can turn into nothings and we have more B/C guys than anybody else in baseball so we will end up with the most nothings.”
You can’t make extreme depth out to be a bad thing and the team will have plenty of opportunities in this year’s draft to go after more B+ guys, which is a Good thing.
Dex - February 9, 2012
I'm not saying that they will all bust
Just that if the majority of our guys are high floor and if they meet that floor and nothing more, we might end up with more Will Venables and Nick Hundleys, which we don’t need.
Our high ceiling guys are mostly in A ball which leaves some room to fall off, although hopefully they grow and reach those ceilings.
I’m excited about the future, just a little cautious since it isn’t a sure thing it’ll all translate into big league wins.
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
Its never a sure thing Debbie.
We don’t “need” MVP Candidates. We just need B guys to have a badass year or two. If we have 9 healthy Nick Hundleys who hit .288 / .347 / .477 / .824
I will not cry about it.
MrDanielX - February 9, 2012
venable and hundley weren't high floor guys
in fact i think venable epitomizes high-ceiling guy who has never put it together. scouts loved his athleticism, tools and upside, but he just hasn’t translated that to baseball skills yet. as i recall venable was a c+ prospect.
and i don’t know where these liriano comparisons come from. they are incredibly different in career trajectories and prospect status. they had similar numbers in single-A but venable was in his age-24 season whereas liriano won the northwest league MVP at age 21. Also his speed is a lot closer to cameron maybin’s than will venable’s.
combine that with jaff decker, joe ross, donovan tate, and rey fuentes, i wouldn’t say our system is devoid of high-risk/high-reward guys.
iheartyourfart - February 9, 2012
I'm not comparing the tools of any prospect to another major leaguer
The point I was trying to make was that all these guys could end up as “successful” prospects making it to the big leagues then have very mediocre careers which won’t significantly alter our future.
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
the will venables on our team still represent surplus value
when you fill some of your positions with average or better talent that remains inexpensive it allows you to invest elsewhere. A venorfia platoon in right field for next season projects to about 3 WAR over 650 PAs. You’re not getting superstar production, but 3 WAR is more than either Andre Ethier or John Jay produced last season. another plus is that the glut of young talent lets you make moves for guys that you need. the front office has been very clear that the padres are always going to have to either homegrow or trade for hitters because free agents don’t want to sign here.
you can build a team around cheap roleplayers who excel at particular facets of their game (i.e. chase headley’s on base skills, venable’s rf defense, etc.) when you sprinkle in a few solid producers and a great pitching staff. heck the 2010 padres had only 2 position players that were “above average” in terms of WAR (agonz and headley) and they won 90 games. The giants won the world series with buster posey and a few marginal guys who had career years.
having a surplus of young, cheap talent helps you out in a lot of ways, whether or not they pan out as stars.
iheartyourfart - February 10, 2012
Really... the Giants?
“The Giants won the world series with Buster posey and a few marginal guys who had career years”… That’s all they had?
Yeah, I mean I couldn’t even tell you who was on their pitching staff. A bunch of ass-backward starters… I don’t think any of them is a legit starter, let alone an ace or 2 time Cy Young award winner…
Their 2010 postseason pitching stats, for your viewing pleasure… Hopefully, you will revise your above opinion with something along the lines of “A F***load of awesome pitching, Buster Posey, and …”
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/year/2010/seasontype/3/league/nl/order/false
Zen Blade - February 10, 2012
He was talking about position players.
MrDanielX - February 10, 2012
"you can build a team around cheap roleplayers... when you sprinkle in a few solid producers and a great pitching staff."
who said that again? i think it was mark twain
iheartyourfart - February 10, 2012
Just so long as we are clear that mark twain knew baseball.
Zen Blade - February 10, 2012
We're set up to compete, now and in the future.
Sure, I’d be a lot more comfortable if we had a few Matt Moores and Mike Trouts, but the level value our farm is going to contribute is going to be immense.
Here’s the strategy as I see it; We fill the roster with as many high floored players making the minimum salary as we can, intelligently buying arbitration and a few free agent years while adding a couple option years with our best players like the Rays did with Longoria and Moore. Once the vast majority of the staff, bullpen and position players are covered for about 2/3 of the payroll, we can take a few gambles on 1 or 2 year deals with veterans and make a run at the play offs.
How will that strategy translate into wins? Well, imagine the Padres were able to fill the closer and middle infield positions with good but not spectacular players to replace Street, Bartlett, Hudson, Venable, Kotsay and Denorfia this season. That’s 21.5 million we could’ve had to throw around on free agents this season. With a minor bump in payroll that number could easily get to 26 million. That could potentially get us Carlos Beltran and Roy Oswalt.
Pardon my Rosterbation:
Staff: Oswalt, Luebke, Wieland, Erlin, Bass/Kelly
Bullpen: Boxberger, Mikolas, Brach, Quankenbush, Cashner.
Lineup:
CF Maybin
3B Headley/2B Spangenberg
RF Beltran
LF Quentin
1B Alonso
C Grandal
3B Headley/Gyorko/2B Spangenberg
SS TBD
This is just an exercise to demonstrate where the club could be in the next 1 or 2 seasons. I realize I’m conflating current free agents with future prospects. But there will be similar free agents whenever we’re ready to compete. There always are. This is where I envision the club very soon and it looks pretty good to me.
padmadfan - February 9, 2012
The obvious flaw
That comes up if you combine this exercise with what Mmrbarneydangles is saying is that you aren’t accounting for guys that bust out or don’t live up to their potential. You’ve pretty much got a lineup there with every prospect panning out.
Also, I’m not so sure about that TBD guy at SS, lol.
Wonko - February 9, 2012
And the question is
What is padmanfan projecting out of the prospects given that they do make the team. Spangenberg could hit .300 and steal 30 bases or he could hit .260 and steal 15, gyorko could drive in 70 runs or 40. While the latter isn’t awful in both cases, I don’t think well be able to compete for a WS with that kind of production.
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
The point is, if you have depth, the odds are greater you have a lineup composed of prospects making the minimum salary.
And it’s not nearly all the prospects. Okay, Let’s bust Gyorko/Kelly/Grandal/Wieland/Erlin/Spangenberg/Alonso. Let’s say the rebuilding was a huge failure.
You can sign Headley to a team friendly deal, You still have Sampson and Ross in the near future, Guzman is an able backup plan at 1st, Galvez or Belnome cover 2nd for Spangenberg, Hedges is a good backup to Grandal…are you getting the point about depth yet? Every team has to deal with attrition in the minor leagues, we are in a favorable position to deal with that attrition.
World Series? We’re going to have a lot of things break our way for that to be a realistic possibility. But, you never know, as long you hang around and get hot at the right time anyone can win the thing.
We don’t have a SS. There aren’t many around. Odds are we have a gaping hole there for the next few years. You don’t like TBD, try Everth Cabrera.
padmadfan - February 9, 2012
I'm not saying they won't all make the major leagues
Im just saying that currently there doesn’t appear to be a big impact guy that is near the big leagues. All the high ceiling guys are in A ball.
I’m just saying that it would be nice to have an A guy or two and four or eight less C guys, if I had to choose. Don’t get me wrong, I like the depth I just don’t see how it will translate to a major push without a few exceeding current expectations.
My suggestion is to eventually do what the Reds did and flip some prospects for a big league impact guy.
As for SS, I’ve read a few times how pleased everyone is w Jace Peterson although he’s a couple of years away.
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
We won't trade prospects for big league players.
But we will ship off the veterans if the prospects show they can handle the major leagues. We need to bring them up and work them into the system, similar to the way Headley replaced Kouzmanoff. Byrnes seems like he goes for high impact over depth anyway, so that’s good considering the position we’re in. The depth comment was for Wonko, not you.
The TL;DR version is; establish a cheap core, sign veteran players to 2 year deals, trade your home grown players before they become free agents for stars on the last year of their deal then let them walk. Offer arbitration if you think they’ll turn it down, score picks.
Jace is a good prospect and I expect the Padres will take a SS with the first pick in the 2012 draft. There’s a few good ones like Correa, Marrero and Checchini.
padmadfan - February 9, 2012
I sure hope we draft a SS
Who are you highes on in our system?
mrbarneydangles - February 9, 2012
No one really, at least not yet.
Jace has excellent good tools, but I want to see some good pro data before I get excited about him.
padmadfan - February 10, 2012
Sorry
Didn’t mean just SS, the whole system.
mrbarneydangles - February 10, 2012
Alonso and Grandal, I got high hopes for both.
People rag on Alonso because he didn’t OPS over .900 in AAA, but he was working through an injury. When he was healthy he OPS’d over .950. I love his advanced knowledge of the strike zone and he has a great swing. He manages to get full extension while still getting his hands through and maintaining bat speed. He doesn’t have “light tower power” and Petco will eat most of his home runs, but when all is said and done, he’ll be our finest hitter.
Grandal is just one of the best catching prospects in the minors. A compact, powerful swing and great strike zone judgment mean his bat will probably translate to major league success. I see him developing into a Miguel Montero type with a .280/.350/.450 line.
padmadfan - February 10, 2012
Nice
I’m highest on Alonso and Spangenberg. I just have a good feel about Span. I don’t think he’ll be a superstar but I pin him as a solid and consistent producer that will be with the team for a long time.
mrbarneydangles - February 10, 2012
Yeah, I like Span too.
If he develops a .300 bat and can steal 25-30 bases he’ll be one of the best 2nd basemen out there. But he’s going to have to watch out for Belnome who is just a stud hitter. This guy might be the second coming of Dan Uggla…and all that that implies.
padmadfan - February 10, 2012
that's the beauty of B and B+ prospects
a lot of them end up playing like C level big leaguers, and a lot of them end up playing like As.
iheartyourfart - February 9, 2012
I don't think
that he’s really estimating on the high side for most of these guys
Luebke is pretty much a #2 right now, if he can stay healthy and throw enough innings, but that’s not so much of a reach. Weiland and Wrlin are agreed to have 3/4 floors right now by a lot with a #2 ceiling- sure, that doesn’t mean they are guaranteed but to pencil them in at 3/4 doesn’t seem like an ultimate best case scenario, it seems like a happy medium.
Maybin could hit leadoff now, Headley could hit second now, Beltran, Quentin are where they would be. Alonso ending up as a 5 hitter seems to be where most peg him ending up. Grandal being a regular catcher could be a reach but if stays as a catcher he has the bat to hit 6th. If he doesn’t make it, Hundley can catch the ball, and he hit pretty well last year for a catcher. Finally, Spangenberg hitting 7th at a .260 clip while stealing 15 like mrbarneydangles has as his low end scenario seems like it would be good enough for this team.
The bullpen is full of guys that could go either way, but I don’t see this as being a best case scenario for this team in terms of prospects. Rather, it seems like a pretty realistic view of how this team could be, with a lot of these able to be replaced by other prospects if they don’t end up panning out due to the depth we have.
Do still need to determine who the shortstop would be though.
padres8 - February 9, 2012
stephen drew and eric aybar will be FAs next season
but its always hard to sign a shortstop since they’re in such demand. honestly i would be more than happy with everth cabrera hitting .250/.350/.350 with speed and close to average defense, until jace peterson, jeudy valdez, drew cumberland, or whoever they intend to draft comes up. to be frank though the padres SS situation is bleak, but so is the rest of the league’s. the last two world series champs won it all with the reanimated corpses of rafael furcal and renteria playing shortstop.
byrnes seems kind of high on cabrera for the short term, at least compared to hoyer. i think he takes over SS before midseason and bartlett is moved to the super-utility role in order to avoid his vesting option that’s triggered by total plate appearances.
iheartyourfart - February 10, 2012
I think
Bartlett is a more than serviceable option for us to have compared to what the rest of the league is throwing out there. He’s not the long term option, but for next year at least I think he is more than capable of holding the regular shortstop job. He might be regressing somewhat but I still see him around a .260-maybe even .270 or .280 rather than staying around .240 like he was this year.
Although if Everth is putting up those numbers and can stay healthy I’m down with that too.
padres8 - February 10, 2012
I think Aybar will be next to sign an extenstion for the Angels
they just inked Howie Kendrick to one, chances are they see the void of talent out there at SS and extend Aybar.
IputtheYinTony - February 10, 2012
I agree. And it’s really nice to hear someone say that, especially with all the poo-poo-ing of low payroll these days. It’s tough when most/all of the fan favorites (Peavy, Hoffman, Bell, and Latos among others) get shipped out…but I think the next few years will be really exciting as all this new talent works its way up. I am definitely stoked for the future of this team!
derntootin - February 9, 2012
I almost died of happiness
when I saw the Padres on the front page of ESPN
padres8 - February 9, 2012
you did die, this is a vision
wake up while you still can!
iheartyourfart - February 9, 2012
People that are fans of payrolls in the 6s and 7s
Should kinda be a fan of this as well. The only way the org is going to bump the payroll up to those figures is by building a core, keeping those guys in place and supplementing them with players from FA or trades. This is the beginnings of making the type of core that will get the payroll up to those numbers.
Wonko - February 9, 2012
Nah...
I think the people looking for big payroll will still gripe about not going after the Yu Darvishes and Albert Pujolses of the world. I think there are some fans who are planning to gripe regardless of what happens. If we make a WS appearance and lose in 7, they will bitch and moan about how Byrnes wouldn’t pull the trigger on some random deal that would’ve made our payroll start with an 8.
Dex - February 9, 2012
If things go to plan with the farm it could start and end with an 8!!!!!!!!!!!!
(because it will only be one number, and that number is eight! $8m?? You follow?)
london_balling - February 9, 2012
I'm not saying they won't gripe.
I’m saying they shouldn’t if their goal is to see a payroll with a 6 or a 7 sooner rather than later with this ownership in place (as opposed to some mythical ownership that actually owns a real life money tree).
Wonko - February 9, 2012
no, i demand we sign papelbons to $50m deals
gotta get that payroll up somehow
iheartyourfart - February 9, 2012
will we really see these guys?
farm system is great. Will they play, and will they come up at around the same time is the real questions.
Ualtar - February 9, 2012
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