I had my doubts about Rizzo becoming a Padres star, but it scares me that I'm pretty sure he will have great success in the Friendly Confines. The Padres haven't even seen Yonder Alonso play in Petco Park yet and they are trading away the player that was touted as heir apparent to Adrian Gonzalez. Was Rizzo's trade value dropping that rapidly that he had to be traded now? What was the rush?
As for Andrew Cashner, I don't know much about him yet, but anybody that throws over 100 MPH has to be an injury risk, not just to himself but possibly a fan when Cashner's arm goes flying into the stands.
I remain hopeful but this trade has made me a nervous wreck.
Right now the trade is getting pretty rotten reviews from media, bloggers and critics. It's sitting at 33% in my initial sweep for links.
To give you a better idea of this trade's freshness I've decided to start comparing it to its counterpart on the silver screen. This trade is most comparable to Terminator Salvation and Pirates of the Carribean: On Stranger Tides, two movies that received 33% from RottenTomatoes.com.
I haven't seen either because of their terrible reviews. Dex mentioned that they are both bad sequels to good action movies. I wondered if this trade is a bad sequel to the positively reviewed Mat Latos and Carlos Quentin trades.
I'll be updating this trades freshness as I find more links. Feel free bring them to my attention in the comments section along with your own opinion.
UPDATE:
Added 5 new links, 3 fresh and 2 rotten. The trade now sits at 43% fresh. I thought the older it got the more it would spoil, but apparently it's getting fresher. Now the trade is on par with Russell Crowe's Robin Hood, another movie I didn't see.
Apologies to RottenTomatoes.com
MLB -- Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner deal breakdown - Keith Law -ESPN
So the deal really boils down to a good everyday player (Rizzo) for a high-ceiling reliever (Cashner), which favors the Cubs overall.
Twitter / @jimcallisBA
Like both sides. Cashner VG if healthy. Like Rizzo too. Like Cates a lot more than Na.
Padres acquire Andrew Cashner for Anthony Rizzo :: Friar Forecast :: A San Diego Padres blog
This move may help the Padres in 2012, but it won’t help them much long-term. A late-inning reliever, even one as potentially dominant as Cashner, isn’t what they should be shopping for right now, especially if it involves dealing away an everyday player as potentially valuable as Rizzo.
Cubs Land Anthony Rizzo from Padres for Andrew Cashner " MLB Dirt
This deal, at current face value, is an easy win for Theo Epstein and the Cubs and it leaves me wondering what the Padres were thinking and why they could not get more from a team like the Rays for a potential star in Rizzo.
Padres Trade Anthony Rizzo to the Cubs - Chicken Friars - A San Diego Padres Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More
However, Cashner has enough upside to overcome the limited time he has seen in the Majors. If he can earn a starting job with the Padres, it’s a huge win for the club. If he becomes a reliable bullpen arm, the trade still ends in a plus for San Diego. Cashner is not arbitration eligible until 2014. That give San Diego some time to truly evaluate his ability before having to commit very much money to him.
Padres Ready To Tango With Cash(ner) | FanGraphs Baseball
If he can maintain the form he flashed in 2010 and ever, ever so briefly last September, the Padres will have added a nice chip to the back of their bullpen while better aligning their roster for the 2012 season, all while enabling their young guns to get more seasoning on the farm. Add it all up and you have an exchange that looks more worthwhile than the headline "Padres trade first baseman for relief pitcher" would lead you to believe.
Cubs Acquire Anthony Rizzo, Trade Andrew Cashner To Padres - Grant Bisbee - Baseball Nation
If you really love Cashner's potential as a starter, there's a way to explain this trade, but at first glance it seems like an underwhelming return for one of the Padres' best trade chips.
Twitter / @RJsFro
I love the Rizzo deal!!!.....is what I'd be saying if I was a Cubs fan.
Twitter / @thesacbunt
Is this trade as terrible as it looks on paper? Because it looks really awful.
Padres chat with U-T beat writer Bill Center | UTSanDiego.com
Like I've said here earlier thoday, this could turn out to be a bad trade. But it might have been the best the Padres could do having backed themselves into a corner with two first base prospects. I'm not going to go off and say something stinks just to have an attitiude
Anthony Rizzo: Chicago Cubs trade high risk, high reward - chicagotribune.com
Quick take here is advantage, Cubs. But this is only true because Cashner is a significant physical risk, thanks mostly to his 2011 shoulder issues.
Padres add a power arm in Cashner and move Rizzo to Cubs
Kudos to Josh Byrnes for being willing to make bold trades, holding no sacred cows, and for recognizing the need to bring a tougher edge to the clubhouse makeup in reshaping the organization.
Padres trade Rizzo to Cubs for power-arm prospect | Through The Fence Baseball
I think both teams win in this trade, but I believe the Padres fan base loses because of how management builds its roster due to the extremities of PETCO.
Padres send Anthony Rizzo to Chicago for Andrew Cashner | Padres Prospects
At this point it’s tough to rate this trade too highly. While the Padres dealt from an area of relative strength, they still traded away one of their top prospects for a recently injured pitcher and a relatively low-ceiling secondary piece. If Cashner becomes a lights-out reliever – or Rizzo becomes more of Adam LaRoche than Ryan Howard – this trade will lean towards the Padres favor, until then the upside of this deal feels like a lateral move at best.
0 recs | 153 comments
Hard to analyze this deal on it's own.
Key points though:
1. Cashner and Na for Rizzo and Cates is not a good trade on paper by itself.
2. When you account for the presence of Alonso, Guzman and Blanks, then you basically see the trade as a marginalized player (Rizzo) and a low level prospect (Cates) for a major league ready, albeit injury prone backend reliever with starter potential and a some guy named Na.
3. Of course, that’s a bit unfair because the reason Rizzo was marginalized is the GM’s own doing from when he included Alonso in the Latos trade.
4. Still, getting any other Reds prospect in the Latos trade other than Alonso would have represented getting less value for Latos.
5. Waiting for Alonso to establish himself this year would have only hurt Rizzo’s trade value, because other teams would noticed that the Padres had no where to play him.
Wonko - January 6, 2012
They could have just traded Blanks then
Kept Rizzo and went after what we actually DO need: a middle infield player/prospect.
This trade was nothing more than the GM’s attempt to “make a splash” at the expense of making shit deals like this one.
TheFan09 - January 6, 2012
Blanks has no trade value
None. Zero. Zilch. So, you trade Blanks for virtually nothing. Rizzo’s trade value tumbles further and you get even less.
The idea that we can trade for a middle infield prospect is a myth. There aren’t any of those teams are willing to part with for less than an established MLB All Star.
Wonko - January 6, 2012
C'mon
We coulda got a PTBNL or cash considerations for Blanks
Sam (sdsuaztec4) - January 6, 2012
That's zero trade value in my book.
Wonko - January 6, 2012
Blanks is better than Rizzo.
Proven at minors and majors.
Still a rubbish trade.
lasers pew pew pew! - January 6, 2012
While Blanks has performed better than Rizzo
in his time in the majors, to state that he is proven at the majors is a stretch, unless we want to say he’s proven to strike out alot and be an inconsistent to below average hitter.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
Kyle Blanks
Has a career 108 wRC+ over 400+ PAs.
Zach (maestro876) - January 6, 2012
still hard to say he's "proven"
when he has played a total of 130 games over parts of 3 seasons, has a total of .8 WAR. The bulk of his positive production was in the latter part of 2009. He produced .8 WAR in 172 AB in 2009, and totaled .1 war in 190 AB in 2011. Hardly proven except to be about average, and inconsistent.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
and don't get me wrong
I like Blanks, and think he has great potential. He just hasn’t really proven anything yet.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
My point
Is that he’s not a below average hitter.
Zach (maestro876) - January 6, 2012
by that metric he's not
but where does his wRC+ fit compared to other LF? other OF? his batting average, slugging, OPS, are all..BELOW average.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
Blanks takes an unfair hit to his WAR by playing out of position.
When he’s actually healthy and hitting he has as much upside as Rizzo, IMO.
Much like Rizzo, he fails to keep his hands in and the swing gets long. When he stays compact he’s a much better hitter and the holes in his swing get smaller.
padmadfan - January 6, 2012
Definitely an above K'er.
which is my biggest problem (by far) with him. He strikes out (off the top of my head) like 40% of the time…
hard to see that as a useful player.
I would be interested in seeing player break downs based upon the quality of opposing pitchers. My fear is Blanks is horrible against anything other than #4-5 starters.
Zen Blade - January 7, 2012
you should check his #s
they’ve improved a lot since 09, ESP in the minors where he’s had the most ABs. he’ll never be anything but a big sstrikeout guy but he looks to bexontrolli.f the zone better than in the past.
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
Let me translate that for you
We got screwed royally because our GM decided to give our best prospect to his former boss for next to nothing
TheAxManCometh - January 7, 2012
It wasn't next to nothing.
Wonko - January 9, 2012
I'm neither a cub or padre fan
but this trade is terrbile. What was the rush to trade Rizzo so quick. Keep him at AAA and develop more. He was rushed last year. Your basically selling low.
TheKid08 - January 6, 2012
Concur
Your number 1 prospect in a top 5 system for a reliever?
Dumb
lasers pew pew pew! - January 6, 2012
Haven't you seen what the Padres can get for relievers?
And Rizzo was no longer the no.1 prospect (by some margin).
Aussie fan - January 10, 2012
Most of the prospect gurus still ranked Rizzo as the #1 prospect in our system
Or at least in a virtual tie for #1.
Though saying ‘your number 1 prospect in a top 5 system’ makes it seem like Rizzo was rated higher than he actually is/was. Most of the top systems have elite talent at the top. The Padres just have a ton of very good talent at the top.
Still shouldn’t be trading him for a reliever though. So, hopefully Byrnes views Cashner as a high upside starter long term.
Antonio Olivares - January 10, 2012
Na is a non-prospect
Cashner is a poor man’s kerry wood/mark prior. Hooray.
Sam (sdsuaztec4) - January 6, 2012
he just finished his age 20 season
and already hit AA. i think he’s got a future.
iheartyourfart - January 6, 2012
What in his reports suggest that?
Doesn’t steal bases well
Negative power
Meh hitting ability
So-So Defensive ability
And don’t we have a lot of those kinds of Reymond Fuentes/Luis Durango outfielders already in the system?
TheAxManCometh - January 7, 2012
In 4 AA PA's he was 0 for 4 w/ 3 K's
He is young though. He’s a year younger than I thought. Last year he was only 19, he will be 20 all next season. Maybe there is hope for him, but I’d still rather have Cates.
Antonio Olivares - January 10, 2012
he's also international
most clubs don’t bring those guys to the minors at an early age (preferring to let them develop overseas). at the moment he isn’t showing much statistically but he shows plus plus athleticism, which could mean big things for his development, especially at such a young age.
iheartyourfart - January 10, 2012 via Android app
Yeah....
Forgive me for the bluntness, but as a Dbacks fan, I love this trade. We don’t have to deal with Rizzo, and instead have to deal with a reliever. Not a good trade for you guys, I don’t think
imstillhungry95 - January 6, 2012
Rizzo was never going to play for the Padres
After acquiring Yonder Alonso, Rizzo was expendable. I’m just disappointed with the return.
sdpads24 - January 6, 2012
holy fcuking crap
I know I’m usually down on almost every move Padre-related, but what is there to.hate about trading a guy who sucked in order to.get a guy who had pitching potential. Listen up dumbasses because I have a recipe.of success for ya. Take 1 cup of PETCO park plus 1 tblspn decent pitching prospect and you.know what you get? A finished product who can do the job! Dude hits 101 MPH which is awesome and… Well… Fcuk Jed Hoyer… And you know why? Because I’m drunk that’s why. I’m a hopeful padre fan again.
cubbuster - January 6, 2012 via mobile
not that it mattered what we got for Adrian when he was traded for Rizzo last year,
he was going t be traded anyway, but the reason I dont like the trade is that it makes Padres’ ownership look like a bunch of dumb-asses. They trade one of the best players in baseball, Adrian G, for a guy that is a AAAA player(Rizzo), only to trade Rizzo a year later for a relief pitcher! what a F-ing laughing stock this organization is.
I’m over it.
podpeople - January 6, 2012
Theres the door
don’t let it hit you on the way out
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
To be fair
The GM that acquired him is not the same one that dealt him. Hard to blame the “org” for that.
PhantomPretender - January 6, 2012
Ownership/management had v little leverage with AGon
Would you have preferred him to walk at the end of this season just past and to receive nothing for him? Cashner projects to be a decent set-up pitcher and/or closer, and still has the potential to be a closer. Not an ideal trade, but I like the way Byrnes is stocking up on young relievers and we still have Kelly (and Fuentes) from the AGon trade…
Aussie fan - January 10, 2012
I still like Kelly's ceiling over rizzo
even when underperforming I still think he has more big league value than rizz. if most things break right for rizzo he could be Adam laroche or maybe a poor mans Ryan Howard to be optimistic. valuable for sure, but most people agree that Kelly will at least be an inning eater middle of the rotation Guy; however scouts are largely still optimistic that he can tap the potential of his stuff and ability and be a true top of the rotation type a la mark Pryor
iheartyourfart - January 10, 2012 via Android app
you should drink more often
and its taken me awhile, but when i think of the totality of the trade, and what really is out there, I’ve come around to like it.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
the guy had a stellar year at AAA
but proved nothing as a pro. I get that he’s young but we traded him for a guy with a high ceiling getting higher at PETCO. Rizzo’s ceiling got lower at PETCO.
Mad_Villain - January 6, 2012 via Android app
Latos + Rizzo Trade
Combine the pieces of both trades and look at them as one massive blockbuster. Looks better and makes more sense.
SheaWasBettor21 - January 6, 2012
Combine all the trades!
Padres trade:
Wade LeBlanc
Nick Schmidt
Aaron Cunningham
Mat Latos
Luis Martinez
Simon Castro
Pedro Hernandez
Anthony Rizzo
Zach Cates
Padres receive:
John Baker
Huston Street
Cory Burns
Edinson Volquez
Brad Boxberger
Yasmani Grandal
Yonder Alonso
Ryan Kelly
Carlos Quentin
Kyung-Min Na
Andrew Cashner
Would you make that trade? I would.
Natrone Bomb - January 6, 2012
I feel like combining the trades to judge them is kind of silly
Each trade should be judged individually. The other trades are cool. This Rizzo trade is pretty bad.
Unless all the scouts the prospect gurus talk to don’t really exist or are making shit up then Rizzo’s value was much more than Cashner + Na. Throwing in Cates is just salt in the wound.
Antonio Olivares - January 6, 2012
doesn't make any sense
good rosters make wins, not good trades.
iheartyourfart - January 6, 2012 via Android app
It seems like
Rizzo’s actual value did not measure up to his perceived value.
field39 - January 6, 2012
Well in that case
combining all these trades and moves to make a roster seems silly, we should give all teams Wins and Losses based on each trade made every day.
You have to combine the trades. The individual trades aren’t made in a vaccuum- They are dependent upon the make up of the rest of the roster among other factors.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
Obviously the roster at the time of the trade matters
But the fact that they made a bunch of previous trades doesn’t really matter when evaluating this one trade. Byrnes made some pretty good trades before this Rizzo deal that’s why adding up all the players that changed teams makes it look like the Padres got a pretty good deal overall. That’s a fine method to evaluate Byrnes offseason. That doesn’t change the fact that this Rizzo trade was pretty bad though.
Even in the context of the current roster the Rizzo trade doesn’t make sense to me. Cashner probably provides more value to the Padres this season, but his overall value is still much less than Rizzo’s. Cashner replaces who in the bullpen? Brach? That’s probably a half win improvement, or best case scenario 1 win improvement. I don’t attach a ton of value to .5-1 wins in 2012. If the Padres were favored to win the division I could see this trade making a little more sense, but the Padres probably have about a 15% chance to win the division next year.
Since I don’t think Cashner’s added value in 2012 will make a difference in them making the playoffs or not I don’t think this was a good trade. It’s like they traded a B+ and a C+ prospect for a B and C prospect. I imagine they could have gotten more value from Rizzo from someone else this offseason or at some point in the future.
Maybe Byrnes truly believes that Cashner can move to the pen in 2013 and have a chance to develop into a #2/3 starter. I hope that is actually the case because trading a top 50 prospect for a reliever is stupid. It would be stupid even if it was 100% guaranteed that Cashner would be a dominant reliever and stay healthy. It’s even stupider knowing that Cashner is an unproven injury risk.
Antonio Olivares - January 7, 2012
byrnes sees him as a starter
that’s the prism you have to look through to evaluate this trade
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
I like your posts, but not convinced by this one
I’m still learning, so might have this wrong, but here are some counter-arguments:
1) Rizzo was never going to be traded for his full-value because of Alonso and it is hard to see how his value could improve – hitting as well as he did last year wouldn’t change things, and the modifications needed for his swing, plus the shock of Alonso, raise the distinct possibility of him hitting worse in the minors. Also, Krasovic reported in last year’s Spring Training that the professional scouts he spoke to thought Rizzo might be a decent 1B but a few had significant doubts (if I recall correctly), so I’m not sure the industry rated him as highly as the prospect gurus.
2) Relievers have been very valuable to the Padres in recent years (eg the Maybin and Adams trades) – a potentially dominant reliever (let alone potential starter) has to be judged in this light I reckon. That is, not merely in terms of the value they add in wins, but their potential trade value, and the greater trade value of having a deep, young pen. Moreover, reports suggest Cashner might have been mishandled by the Cubs and so be somewhat undervalued, and Black and Balsey have a pretty fine record when it comes to helping pitchers realise their potential.
In essence, I don’t think we could have expected much more for Rizzo at this time. Yes, as Wonko notes, this is because of the previous Latos trade, but Alonso was seemingly needed to get the most value out of that trade and there appear to have been significant doubts as to Rizzo’s future in Petco.
Aussie fan - January 10, 2012
The Cates thing just won't let me enjoy any aspect of this damn thing.
Sickel’s said he throws 92-96 with a nasty change-up. Why you throw away a prospect like that if you’re a Padre is unfathomable.
padmadfan - January 6, 2012
he's old and still.hasn't figured out A ball hitters
definition if a throw-in.
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
He's 23, not 25 (I think you posted that somewhere, not sure). Still a little old for A ball, but he has decent stuff.
Point is, he could possibly provide value. Throwing him away on Ming Na, who really is nothing, isn’t good strategy.
padmadfan - January 7, 2012
Cates will be 22 yeras old all next season
He doesn’t turn 23 until December. That’s not old for a pitcher in high A ball. Especially one that was converted from catcher 2 years ago.
He pitched better than his ERA suggests. He had a 3.23 FIP and 8.47 K/9. His ERA was high because his left on base % was unusually low. He might struggle out of the stretch because he only recently converted to pitcher.
In the one game I saw him pitch on milb.tv last year he looked pretty good to me. Good fastball, excellent change up. If he could develop a third pitch he could be a good starter. Even if he doesn’t develop a third pitch he should have a solid shot at being a good reliever.
Antonio Olivares - January 7, 2012
fip isn't a great stat for milb players
defenses are erratic across the board in single-a
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
That's exactly why FIP is better than ERA.
Zach (maestro876) - January 8, 2012
he's a reliever for now.
could start in the future. him with boxberger, brach, and a couple others give us a shutdown pen. starting pitching is 3 deep (leubke, stauffer, volquez) and 2 more good pieces that will end up traded or will lose their jobs to the kids. I guess I’m just of the opinion that this solidifies our pitching staff and, with an improved lineup, gives us a legitimate chance to win now.
Mad_Villain - January 6, 2012 via Android app
I'm very patient (what Padres fan isn't?)
and willing to wait years to see who “won” this trade, but it’s the first transaction by Byrnes that has me wishing we still had Jed pulling the trigger.
I agree with the notion of moving Rizzo over Alonso because the latter is a much better fit for Petco. I agree with the timing because Rizzo did not need to spend another year in AAA “rebuilding value” as some have suggested, success in the majors was the only thing that could’ve enhanced his value further. I’m completely underwhelmed by the return. Cashner’s nice and all, but I think we could’ve done better.
Cates for Na just rubs salt in the wound. Cates may not be one of our top 25 prospects, but that’s more indicative of how good our top 25 is than anything.
Rich Garcia's defective eyes - January 6, 2012
25 year holds who are marginal in A ball
don’t belong on any prospect list
iheartyourfart - January 6, 2012 via Android app
He's #16 on Sickels' new Cubs list
Here. Na is barely a prospect, not even mentioned other than the comments section.
Rich Garcia's defective eyes - January 6, 2012
i was more down on Cashner
until I had multiple friends that are cubs fans, who really know their cubs, refer to Cashner as a beast.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
No doubt, Cashner has upside.
I’m hoping our excellent pitching minds can turn him into something great.
Rich Garcia's defective eyes - January 6, 2012
I'm confident they will
I’ve seen what they’ve been able to do with less
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
I don't care if he's Rick Vaughn
You traded your best prospect, your best bargaining chip, for a damn reliever. Brilliant
TheAxManCometh - January 7, 2012
If there was someone out there willing to trade a ready for prime time
short stop, for Rizzo. I am thinking that Josh would of done it.
field39 - January 6, 2012
Salvation was much better than its 33% fresh rating.
This trade though imo deserves a 33ish rating.
SD Jake - January 6, 2012 via mobile
Only if you weren't paying attention.
After repeated viewings, Terminator 3 is better than Salvation.
Darklighter - January 6, 2012
Are we talking about the one with Claire Danes or the most recent terminator?
I don’t remember their names beyond the second one.
Zen Blade - January 7, 2012
Claire Danes > Most recent
Darklighter - January 7, 2012
I have no problems with this trade
Rizzo seems like your typical 4A player. Petco wasn’t causing him to strike out in 30% of his plate appearances. The guy’s swing is a huge problem at the big league level. It’s like Chris Young trying to hold runners. There’s just too many limbs to unfurl to effectively hit MLB pitching.
PhantomPretender - January 6, 2012
wasnt he 21 last year?
Isn’t it kind of early to call him a 4A player?
SD Jake - January 6, 2012 via mobile
way early
he could stillness a good player. PETCO.wont do him any favors, bit most 21 year holds have a tough time when they first hit the bigs
he could be a good player still, but he’d be a better cub than padre.
iheartyourfart - January 6, 2012 via Android app
It's possible that I've just become jaded to this kind of player
The Padres have had tons of guys that can rake in AAA but have never put it together at the big league level. For Rizzo, there were serious mechanical flaws in his swing. That’s not an easy thing to fix.
PhantomPretender - January 6, 2012
I agree
even the mechanics issues can be ironed out for a year or two, and still he would be like 23. Quite young.
Venable, on the other hand, I could certainly classify as AAAA and he’s pushing 30.
Seems that the Padres are patching holes that weren’t really there (bullpen), and just pretending the others didn’t exist (think of another position of need).
TheFan09 - January 6, 2012
Holes that weren't there?!
Did you catch our bullpen after we dealt Adams? We didn’t exactly have any kind of secure 7th/8th inning options. Greggerson wasn’t the same after his injury and nobody else has shown any sustained success in that role. A late-inning reliever is very much needed on this team.
PhantomPretender - January 6, 2012
We need some of the younger guys to step up
Frieri, maybe Brach, etc.
This season is going to be a wash anyway, so why not plug the kids into different roles and see who can stick where?
And then use our excesses to fill up the holes that will not be patched up in the next year or two.
TheFan09 - January 6, 2012
you can't just hope for the best with the pen
2010 proved you can play good enough to take the division with a lockdown pen. it helps you win the close games we stunk up last season.
iheartyourfart - January 6, 2012 via Android app
Take the division?
I remember that we lost because our hitters at the end returned back to their normal rate of production, and an overworked bullpen finally faltered a couple times (after being flawless for so long, it was not their fault). The bats needed to step up, and at their normal levels the bats weren’t in a position to do that.
Sure we can be “competitive”, but the Chargers are “competitive” too. Look where that’s been getting them.
Offense, defense, and pitching are needed to win things. Having amazing talent at one side is great; but in the end, balance is what works.
TheFan09 - January 7, 2012
we played well enough to win
we just didn’t win. hitting was never great even when times were good. IMO it was starting pitching that killed us down the stretch but when you lose out by one game I guess you can blame anyone
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
if it was absolutely a given
that 2012 was a wash, sure, plug the kids in and see what happens. But In a relatively weak division, and the moves that have been made so far, I absolutely think the division is in play this year. Even if it’s not, I’m not willing to give up on it and say its a wash, and I’d rather have players in roles that give us an even better chance at winning.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
It's a wash
Why get these players for a year or two and then still have to acclimate the rookies to bigs after that period? Why not just let the kids figure it out on their own, and like what I said see what happens?
They did that at the end of the ’09 season….people see that as the beginning of “something new” for the Padres (albeit a bit premature, judging from last season). However, it did give the youngsters the skills and the experience to play at least adequately in 2010. And that was a big year for us.
TheFan09 - January 7, 2012
Yea those 300 AB's for a 21 yr old
He showed nothing. He should be relagated to bat off the bench at most. Give me a break.
TheKid08 - January 6, 2012
Since the beginning of the off season they have rebuilt the bullpen and added two bats. Yea, it would of been so much better if Josh had just waited around for the farm to fill in the holes.
field39 - January 6, 2012
Hard to say he's filled the hole at first
When we have yet to see Yonder Alonso hit at Petco. I like his upside, don’t get me wrong, but I’d call that “penciled-in”.
The pen does look good, I won’t lie, but it seems awfully crowded to me. Street, Cashner, Boxy, Burns, Frieri, Gregerson, Hamren, and maybe Brach… plus guys who are almost there, like Mikolas and Lollis. On the bright side, means we don’t have to rush arms to the majors.
StrangeBroP25 - January 6, 2012 via mobile
Oh, and Josh Spence
Sorry Aussiefan.
StrangeBroP25 - January 6, 2012 via mobile
Brach, Burns, Boxy, and Hamren probably begin the season in AAA
Don’t forget Thatcher either.
As of Now I would say it looks to be a BP of Street, Cashner, Gregerson, Frieri, Thatcher, Spence, Mosely/Bass (one in the pen, one the 5th starter)
All this subject to change with additional trades or moves.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
Burns and mikolas probably get short callups at some point too
same with Kelly, erlin, and wieland, who figure to start out in the pen as they acclimate to MLB hitting. the latter two even have a chance of making the team out of spring training.
I think the organization sees the luebke/stauffer bullpen to rotation role as a better way to progress pitchers from the minors to the rotation than exposing them to the pcl.
iheartyourfart - January 10, 2012 via Android app
Nice pick up!
It does seem a bit of a crowded pen, but most are still unproven, so you need some depth, and you also need to remember that a poor pen cost Byrnes the d-back job, so he’s probably a bit anxious about it – plus Petco small-ball depends on a shut-down pen…
Aussie fan - January 10, 2012
As long as some of them have minor league options
there is no such thing as a crowded pen. They can ship guys back and forth between AAA all year is they want to.
field39 - January 10, 2012
too much 'pen is a great thing
if we can keep selling high and getting Cameron maybins
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
acquiring lots of arms is good
we can win in the West on pitching alone
and other teams seem to desire them
Hormel - January 7, 2012
When 'too many' is your only complaint, you've got a great 'pen situation
After cooling down and reassessing the trade, I don’t hate it… still think we could’ve gotten a lot more for Rizzo, but the Cubs’ system is barren. If Cashner becomes a #2 starter into our theoretical “competitive window”, I’ll be very happy with the move.
Still can’t shake the feeling that Byrnes was doing Jed a favor rather than making a baseball move.
StrangeBroP25 - January 7, 2012
Exactly.
Wieland and Erlin say hello as well (of course, we have to see how they go, but the Adams trade was at least a windfall also in terms of rated prospects).
Aussie fan - January 10, 2012
Josh needs to cool down
He has like 5 years of pentup GMing that he’s trying to jizz out in a month. Chill, homeboy, Moorad loves you like a son. I really hope that Rizzo turns out to be Hiep Sop Choi, perenially unable to hit major league gas. Seems like we should have held out for more. What’s the rush? Hope Cashner turns into Jered Weaver.
bringbackbuddytrees - January 6, 2012
Except not actually Jered Weaver
We already traded away one solid young pitcher who’s got attitude issues this offseason. If we could just get the arm that’d be great.
StrangeBroP25 - January 6, 2012 via mobile
After digesting the trade
I think we all just got tricked by Hoyer/PCL. Rizzo was a highly regarded prospect in the Red Sox system which isn’t excellent. Maybe we think it was good because the Red Sox just won two WS but in actuality, the farm system isn’t anything spectacular. We figured since Hoyer helped build those Red Sox WS teams, he was an excellent evaluater of talent and that Rizzo was going to be a future star. Couple that with a fantastic stats in the minors (not taking away what he did at SA because that’s considered a pitchers park – see Logan Forsythe’s stats at SA) but the PCL stats are obviously inflated. At the end of the day a prospect is nothing more than a prospect. After Blanks hit those homers after he got called up we thought we had a gem, maybe we do, maybe we don’t, but it sure looks a lot gloomier now (regarding Blanks) than it did a couple of years ago. What’s to say the same thing doesn’t happen to Rizzo?
It’s all about perception. If Byrnes makes this trade for a high ceiling A player like say the Cubs Baez (I know they Cubs can’t trade this years DP, just an example) then we would probably love the deal. We just got middle infield help and our minor league system just got SO much better. Hell, i would be happy. BUT, there’s a solid chance that any high ceiling prospect will never make it. Cashner would prove to be much better than said prospect.
The problem with Cashner is that he is neither a PROVEN major leaguer or a high ceiling prospect. He’s a marginal major leaguer with some upside. As fans, we frown upon marginal major leaguers because they don’t add any flash to the major league club and they don’t add hope the future. Cashner will only help us win games in 2012 and beyond, he may not blow us away but he’s more of a sure thing than Rizzo.
I will feel a lot better about all of this if we sign Maybin to a long term deal in the next week or two.
mrbarneydangles - January 6, 2012
Interesting you're high on Cam Maybin
Considering your knock on Cashner is that he’s neither a proven major leaguer nor a high ceiling prospect. The exact same thing could’ve been said when we acquired Cam Maybin.
Dex - January 6, 2012
My initial reaction to the Cam trade was negative
I initially pinned Maybin as the next TGJ. I quickly warmed up though, I am very high on him now considering he has both upside and flash.
After digesting the trade, I’m not knocking Cashner, I’m happier with the trade now than I was earlier today. I guess the light just went off for me why the trade happened and why the majority of the fans are down on it.
mrbarneydangles - January 6, 2012
I see your point
and I am in the same thought. Happier with it now than I was initially.
Nater Tater - January 6, 2012
not me
This trade just doesn’t make sense if we had ANY other options with Rizzo… and supposedly we did.
So, either we got snookered or Rizzo’s stock fell a lot between last year and this year.
Zen Blade - January 7, 2012
cash isn't a prospect, he's a project
he’s serviceable now but has stud upside a la cam maybin
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
Well put, sort of.
The concept is correct-ish, but you’re wrong on the upside part.
Cash is a massive dude with steady upper 90’s gas and serviceable secondary stuff. The term “upside” was made for guys like Cash. I prefer Rizzo in a vacuum, but the odds are with Cash in the near term, and the Pads have plenty of options for the rotation.
Given the context, I don’t think it was such a bad deal.
SheaWasBettor21 - January 7, 2012
Gas.
Btw, he doesn’t just throw hard. He throws HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARD. Think “a human, righty version of Chapman”. There are going to be quite a few ooohs and aaaahs when he takes the mound.
SheaWasBettor21 - January 7, 2012
I can't tell yet with this one
I like Cashner, and I’m eager to see what Balsley can do with him. At the same time, Rizzo has that light tower power potential that the Padres have so rarely boasted.
sdchicken - January 6, 2012
lower than blanks
ESP. with the PETCO effect.
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
If this means more playing time for Blanks, I'm all for it.
sdchicken - January 7, 2012
Don't see why anyone can be upset with this trade.
We have 4 1Bs right now and Rizzo was number 4 on the depth chart. His swing was garbage that may have been unfixable, his D was meh, and he was the worst of our four options. Frankly I’m shocked we got a 100 mph setup/future starter/future closer for him. He was not worth it. Cubs got jobbed because of Hoyers unhealthy obsession with the kid. Frankly I think that is the real issue. People bought into Jed’s BS he fed us after the Adrian trade about Rizzo.
athletics68 - January 7, 2012
I can give you some reasons of why people are upset with the trade. Granted, I don't agree with any of them. I'm still waffling on the trade.
1-People hate change
2-The fantasy baseball effect—-A 1B is more valuable than a RP
3-People think Rizzo is dreamy
4-Rizzo was anointed Gonzilla’s successor
5-Cashner is a dirty Cub
6-Rizzo has big time power potential
7-Name recognition—-Baseball America and Yahoo! Sports love this kid and plaster his big chunky face and name all over their sites when possible.
8-People prematurely Rizzed all over themselves during 2011 when he came up
9-People on the Internet are saying the Padres are stupid for making the trade (and, as Aasif Mandvi once said, “The Internet. Where, from what I understand, only NICE things are said.”)
I’m waffling on the trade because I like Rizzo’s potential more than I like Cashner’s. However, I like that Cashner actually has had success at the big league level, where Rizzo has had none. One homerun in 128 ABs from a guy with that much power is pretty piss-poor.
sdchicken - January 7, 2012
uhhh... very slanted opinion here
Rizzo was a stud in the minors.
Cashner WAS NOT.
Cashner and Rizzo have each seen a smallllll amount of major league playing time. Neither was particularly good. ONE good start does not make you an ace. And a huge BB/9 rate is very suspect. You should be getting to the majors while walking a ton of batters. And his K rate has not been very high for someone with his 100 MPH pitches…
Stud 1B prospect
vs non-stud pitching prospect.
YOU DECIDE
Zen Blade - January 7, 2012
He has not pitched 100 mph throughout his career.
In fact, he started out throwing in the low 90s. He is not Aroldis Chapman.
Cashner is not some “schlub” pitcher who just barely managed to get into baseball. He was drafted 19th overall in 2008.
And, yes, your opinion is quite slanted.
sdchicken - January 7, 2012
rizzo was not a stud in minors
he was a stud in pcl. huge difference. Cunningham, Durango, Clark, and countless others have put up christ-like numbers in Tucson.
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
There's the disconnect
Rizzo was not a stud in the minors. He was a stud in the PCL hitting at a high elevation former spring training park against comparatively slow PCL pitching…
athletics68 - January 7, 2012
BUT WE TRADE AWAY ALL OUR STARS
even when they aren’t stars yet 8====>
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
I've seen this notion more than once in the thread.
The idea that Rizzo was only valued that much by Jed is ridiculous. He was pegged as our #1 prospect this year by most talent evaluators. His value is not some sort of mirage.
Rich Garcia's defective eyes - January 7, 2012
Scan seems to think it’s fresh.
jodes0405 - January 7, 2012
I love Scan.
Darklighter - January 7, 2012
And you'll love Cashner as soon as he starts walking a batter an inning in relief
But, I hope I’m wrong… would love for us to get a great pitcher out of this.
Zen Blade - January 7, 2012
Yes, because that's exactly what "I love Scan" means.
Darklighter - January 7, 2012
Scan works for the Padres
has there been any trade he didn’t like this year? Just asking?
TheAxManCometh - January 7, 2012
So, you could argue the merits of Scan's analysis, or you could call him a shill.
Darklighter - January 7, 2012
On facebook, someone brought up the fact that he's employed by the Padres and asked him for some objectivity.
Scan responded:
jodes0405 - January 7, 2012
Scanburn!
padmadfan - January 7, 2012
It got better!
jodes0405 - January 7, 2012
To answer your question though, I don't think so.
He seems to approve of all the trades so far this year. But then again, other than this Rizzo trade, so do most people. And I’m pretty sure all those people don’t work for the Padres.
John Baker trade is 82% fresh
Huston Street trade is 66% fresh
Mat Latos trade is 81% fresh
Carlos Quentin trade is 75% fresh
jodes0405 - January 7, 2012
Most of those were good moves
This was a bad move
TheAxManCometh - January 7, 2012
Whoosh!
You asked
with the implication that he was a shill because he liked them all. Jodes demonstrated to you that liking all of these trades has nothing to do with bias.Darklighter - January 7, 2012
I'm just answering your question.
No, there haven’t apparently been any trades this year that he didn’t like.* But generally, all the trades have been met with positive reactions.
So does the fact that he has found a way to view this particular trade positively have anything to do with his employment with the Padres? Apparently you think so. Personally, I don’t. Watching and listening to Scanlan’s analysis about the Padres (and baseball in general) all these years, I have never seen or heard him try to sugarcoat anything about the team. He critiques them when they need to be critiqued. He points out mistakes and places they go wrong. I just don’t see him as the kind of person who would say something he doesn’t really believe just because he doesn’t think his employers would disapprove. He respects the game too much. So maybe you don’t agree with his viewpoint. I don’t even fully agree with it. But it’s ridiculous to imply that his employment with the Padres is the reason he likes this trade.
*At least not the major trades. I didn’t check to see what he thought about the smaller trades or signings from this offseason.
jodes0405 - January 7, 2012
Think he liked the Burns/Pig trade as well
though that could’ve been a different talking head.
StrangeBroP25 - January 8, 2012
When I first read "Burns/Pig", I was wondering what the Simpsons had to do with all of this trade business.
Then it dawned on me. :-p
sdchicken - January 8, 2012
He has done a great job pointing out mistakes and the like
as an independent analyst and as a member of channel 4. As a member of the official Padres radio network? Let’s see what happens. Few people speak of this trade as a good thing but he jumps out and says its another great trade. Latos/Street/Quentin you could make a solid case both for and against, and Scan did a decent job explaining those. I just think this is nothing then one GM doing a favor for his former colleague. And in those circumstances, you don’t criticize the boss
TheAxManCometh - January 8, 2012
but you have to admit
you don’t have any actual basis for either of those views
iheartyourfart - January 8, 2012 via Android app
Looks like he doesn't have to.
Darklighter - January 8, 2012
So what part of Scan's argument do you not think he did a good job explaining?
Note: I’m not asking what part you don’t agree with.
jodes0405 - January 8, 2012
Also, here's more of what Scan had to say:
jodes0405 - January 8, 2012
It's not rocket scienctry...
Rizzo + Spacious PetCo Park = Crap
Cashner’s 100+ mph Fastball + Friendly Confines = Crap
Rizzo + Friendly Confines = Awesome Sauce
Cashner’s 100+ mph Fastball + Spacious PetCo Park = Awesome Sauce
Although I like Rizzo what is the point in acquiring a left handed pull power hitter in PetCo? I have a sneaking suspicion Rizzo would be used as trade bait all along. He was brought up last year to appease the masses. Or maybe this is a conspiracy theory on par with the JFK shooting and Jen and Theo new all along that they were going to Chicago, even when they were in Boston…something to think about.
Jsn L - January 7, 2012
Hmmm...
I must have been thinking about Jennifer Aniston when I wrote this.
Jsn L - January 7, 2012
We all know that you have a picture of Jedi with woman's hair photoshopped so that you can pine over "Jen Hoyer" :-p
sdchicken - January 7, 2012
Haha
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 7, 2012
Hmmm...
Theo-wan Epstein?
Jsn L - January 7, 2012
It's Darth Theodious. He's no Jedi, he's a Sith Lord in disguise who seduced our Jedi!
“Give into the Cubs, young Hoyer… Let the butt-hurt fill you…”
sdchicken - January 8, 2012
*Should be "in to." Me fail English? Unpossible!
sdchicken - January 8, 2012
"These aren't the prospects you're looking for..."
Hormel - January 8, 2012
Chicago, Illinois:
You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Jsn L - January 8, 2012
Darth Epstein and Jedi Hoyer....
Jsn L - January 8, 2012
LOL
sdchicken - January 9, 2012
This is what happens when you don't proof read your post...
You end up with a Star Wars slant because someone typed “Jedi” instead of “Jed”…not that I’m complaining. Shopping this photo was fun…and eerily too natural for me.
Jsn L - January 9, 2012
I intentionally typed Jedi. That was his nickname while he was here.
sdchicken - January 9, 2012
Shut the front door...
my bad :(
Jsn L - January 9, 2012
LOL, it's still funny regardless :-)
sdchicken - January 10, 2012
Wonderful.
jodes0405 - January 9, 2012
and our pitching coaches are awesome
I’m sure they’re excited to work w/ all the ml ready talent we have coming up this season.
combine that with the fact that PETCO is excellent for guys with control problems (they can be aggressive without fearing the long ball).
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
I'm sure the marketing team is rethinking any bobble head promotions next year
We already went the safe route w Bud last year. I would go for a Byrnes bobble head.
What’s Byrnes nickname? Can we steal Hacksaw’s nickname for Latos? Byrnes is Kid Gun.
mrbarneydangles - January 7, 2012
Lol
good stuff. Baseball and the amount of trades always make it difficult when it comes to promotions.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 7, 2012
Speaking of nicknames
We could have a lot of fun with Cashner. Street becomes “Tango”, so we’ve got Tango and Cash; he comes in eighth inning, it’s “Take it to the bank”…
StrangeBroP25 - January 7, 2012
Seeing Cashner pitch took a little bit of sting out of the trade for me.
Not a lot to go on, but this guy has legit 99 consistent velocity with a nice slider. In short bursts this guy could be a replacement to Mike Adams in terms of effectiveness. Let me say this though, he will be a total failure if they try to make him a starter. Won’t happen. Bank on it. Looking at his video, he puts a ridiculous amount of strain on that shoulder. In his case it’s not a question of if he’ll need shoulder surgery, it’s just a matter of time. If they try to make him a starter he’ll fail like Chris Young or Erik Bedard.
Another note; he has what I like to call “Dead Heat”. There is absolutely no life on his pitches. It’s just pure velocity for velocities sake. Yeah, he’ll get some Ooohs! and Ahhs! with the radar readings, but hitters will simply time him the second time around. If you look at the video, his best pitch is 97. It had some late life and he caught the outside corner for a strike. He could really benefit from taking a little off his fastball. I hope Balls catches that.
padmadfan - January 7, 2012
dead heat works in the eighth
most starters take something off and rely more on twoseamers and cutters a la stauff. if he can throw 95 and mix in a cutter with his breaking ball then he’s got potential. of course I’ve only seen his stats and reports. haven’t seen him pitch too much
iheartyourfart - January 7, 2012 via Android app
I wouldn't have made this trade
but there’s a reason why Josh Byrnes is the general manager for a Major League Baseball team and I’m sitting on a couch, scratching myself, watching reruns of ‘American Pickers’.
I’ll trust his judgment.
TheThinGwynn - January 7, 2012
Always
a good perspective. Seriously. Monday-morning quarterbacking, etc. is always easy.
McCutchenIsTheTruth - January 7, 2012
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