John Sickels doesn't often make lists, but when he does he puts the Padres second on said lists.
2) San Diego Padres: Incredible depth after the winter trades pushes this system almost to the top.
It's got to feel good as the Padres to get this kind of recognition from the great John Sickels. You work so hard to build up your farm system and no one seems to notice or care because the only thing that really matters to them is Major League Baseball.
John Sickels notices... John Sickels cares.
Sickels is so graphic in the way he describes the Padres gutting the Cincinnati Reds. He makes it sound like a scene from Temple of Doom.
21) Cincinnati Reds: Heart of this system torn out by Mat Latos trade but there is enough at the lower levels that I think they can recharge quickly.
On a Fall night in the not so distant future we'll all look back on this day as a hazy, blurry memory because we'll have consumed so much champagne and it will be stinging our eyes in our post World Series celebration. Sure we lost to the Blue Jays in the World Series, but we'll remember that John Sickels was right. John Sickels is always right.
2 recs | 41 comments
We never should have traded Joe Carter to the Jays'
Sam (sdsuaztec4) - January 24, 2012
I like that the two best farm systems are on opposite ends of the continent
Because if you’re being scientific about it, it eliminates any effect that the major league city has on quality of the minor league product.
Dex - January 24, 2012
"White Sox come in LAST!?"
“Even after they completely robbed us of all of our minor league pitching talent!?!?! Those two pitchers alone should’ve placed their system 10th!?!?! I KNOW”
-Conspiracy Theorist
Dex - January 24, 2012
Love how low the Dodgers and Giants are
We have a lot to be excited about with our farm system. Let’s just hope some pan out. We could be in for a really fun five or six years.
mrbarneydangles - January 24, 2012
i think we have a lot of high "floor" guys
i.e. Erlin, Kelly, and Weiland are almost sure things to be at least middle-of-the-rotation guys with higher potential upsides.
Gyorko, Darnell, and Spangenburg have really good approaches and swings that should translate well to the bigs unless something catastrophic happens. as far as i’m concerned, Alonso has already “arrived.”
Grandal and Hedges will be given plenty of chances due to their skillsets and positions.
There are also definitely guys with big potential as well as a big chance to fizzle out like rymer lyriano and keyvius sampson, who don’t have major flaws, but are still quite raw and need to develop. rey fuentes, edinson rincon, jaff decker, and a few of our middle infield prospects have got potential but also serious flaws that they will have to overcome if they want to produce for the MLB club. then there’s donovan tate….
overall we will probably see a bunch of guys come short, but you have to like our depth combined with the fact that a lot of our guys have very projectable skillsets
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
Good points
Like the high floor idea. Very few potential superstars but a lot of big league talent.
Who do you think will be the top three impact guys out of the system as it is currently? Not counting Alonso.
mrbarneydangles - January 24, 2012
That's a toughie O.o
Hitters I would go with Gyorko, Rymer, and Peterson.
For pitching Weiland (could’ve swore I heard he was touching 96!) Erlin and hopefully Kelly.
I thought I read Kelly added velocity also and was having a tough time commanding it in AA.
Ace590 - January 24, 2012 via mobile
But hopefully the magic of Budbot and Balsley can turn Casey into his ace potential.
Ace590 - January 24, 2012 via mobile
Grandal, Gyorko, Liriano.
I have really high hopes for Grandal. I think at his peak he’s an All Star caliber player. Gyorko should hit, of that I have little doubt. The question is can he overcome his Oompa Loompish body enough to play adequate defense. Liriano could be the next Carl Crawford or he could flame out next season. His ceiling and floor both go all the way at this point.
padmadfan - January 24, 2012
i think grandal has a good chance of playing star-caliber
but we rarely think of the top few catchers as “star players.” realistically there’s mauer and posey (who had down/injury seasons), and mccann and molina. if you trust WAR, nick hundley was the 8th best catcher in the bigs last season (despite only playing 80 games). i think he turns out like hundley in terms of stealthily playing at a high level because he doesn’t have a calling card skill.
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
liriano has more potential than any padre prospect in the last several years
with tate behind him in the current farm system. you could argue for kelly or sampson in the third spot if you’re purely talking ceiling. if you’re asking who are the three guys who have the best chances to become all stars i would probably say Erlin, Kelly and Liriano in that order. I love Erlin’s k/bb ratio, his baseball IQ, and the fact that he will be a lefty starter at petco park. depending on how he develops, he could be anywhere from randy wolf to cliff lee. kelly of course has lots of untapped potential. He hasn’t been throwing at the velocity he’s capable of, and his frame is really ideal for a pitching prospect. If he can get his secondary pitches consistent then he has top of the rotation potential. liriano is far away and will have to avoid some pitfalls but based on pure athleticism he’s in a class by himself – think cameron maybin but 4 years younger and with 10lbs more muscle.
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
Yea it will be interesting to see how Liriano does in LE again this year
I think a fast start will go a long way for him.
mrbarneydangles - January 24, 2012
What about Ross
he may have the best arm in the system…….
BTW, it is awesome we can argue over this stuff.
Use to be…well P-Mac is our third best prospect then it gets really ugly.
Ron Mexico - January 25, 2012
too early to say
i couldn’t tell you anything about him other than he was a first round college pitcher.
iheartyourfart - January 25, 2012
Thought he was HS?
I just heard more advanced than brother Tyson and a good pithers body.
mrbarneydangles - January 25, 2012
and Brynes loves him.
Ron Mexico - January 25, 2012
Hopefully the Yankees don't falter down the stretch
miss the playoffs, fire Cashman, hire Byrnes, then trade for Joe Ross.
mrbarneydangles - January 25, 2012
shows what i know
iheartyourfart - January 25, 2012
Donovan tate
Also hasn’t fallen completely off the face of the earth. Another example of potential but serious flaws but he wasn’t the 3rd pick for nothing
padres8 - January 24, 2012
i'm rooting for him
but i can’t think of anybody more talented than he is that has accomplished less.
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
he plays well when he plays
the problem is that he doesnt’ play much.
Ron Mexico - January 25, 2012
He is on the Milton Bradley track.
field39 - January 25, 2012
how can you say Alonso has arrived
when we haven’t seen him play a single game for the padres? I know he did well in AAA for Cincy last year, but Rizzo did well in AAA Tuscon too. I am not saying he won’t do well, just asking a level headed question.
glamisdave - January 24, 2012
i don't really consider him a prospect
in a sense that he’s essentially a finished product. he’ll have to make adjustments here and there like all major league hitters, but for the most part his “development” is over and he will sink or swim as this version of yonder alonso
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
He also hit well in 80 Big League games last season.
MrDanielX - January 25, 2012
small sample sizes, but
its easier for a good hitter to look bad over 47 games than it is for a bad hitter to look good.
iheartyourfart - January 25, 2012
"Small sample sizes, but its easier for a good hitter to look bad over 47 games than it is for a bad hitter to look good."
“Just ask me.” —-A bad hitter
sdchicken - January 26, 2012
you KNOW...
If we were trying to project Anthony Rizzo’s OBP for his next 1000 ABs (2 full years) given his 128 ABs, we actually end up with a confidence interval of 7.42. Meaning we’re 95% confident that his OBP over the next 1000 ABs would have been between .208 and .350. Yonder Alonso’s projection on 117 major league ABs is between .273 and .435. With a Petco Park adjustment, that drops a bit, but still sits well above Rizzo.
That’s super rough and a big range for both guys, and I’m not saying that Rizzo won’t be good, but Yonder Alonso still projects to be a more significant contributor over the next couple years. it’s a peeve of mine that the small sample size thing gets overplayed in baseball. It’s possible to come up with projections on what appears to be a small sample.
Dex - January 26, 2012
its a different story when you're talking about a bad sample vs good sample
especially to start out a career. with rizzo, he’s going to have to actively make adjustments and change his game if he wants to succeed. alonso just has to maintain his fundamental approach. a bad sample introduces an additional variable that is almost impossible to accurately account for.
iheartyourfart - January 26, 2012
i'm not saying rizzo won't figure it out
but if i had to take my pick as to who is more likely to be a contributing MLBer sooner i would take alonso in a heartbeat, notwithstanding the fact that rizzo’s ceiling is a bit higher.
iheartyourfart - January 26, 2012
I just like posting pictures of Rizzo's oddly large head
Maybe it just looks big because he has a small face, but I dunno.
sdchicken - January 26, 2012
maybe, or....
dun dun dun…..
iheartyourfart - January 27, 2012
The "O" in that logo behind him
made me think he had stretched lobes for a second.
TheThinGwynn - January 27, 2012
So we should blame Snooki on Rizzo's sudden lack of talent...
I can accept that…
sdchicken - January 27, 2012
its incredible compared to just a few years ago
when our top prospect was cedric “if i’m lucky i’ll be a fourth outfielder” hunter. i’m not sure he’d make the top 15 or 20 if he came up in our system now.
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
All these prospects, especially the pitchers but also hitters, have one big hurdle.
Surviving Tucson and the PCL. Pitchers will have their egos shattered while hitters will lose their edge from unwarranted success. The loss of the Escondido ballpark is gonna hurt.
wegotballsley - January 24, 2012
you're forgetting
the MLB bullpen is our new AAA for starting pitchers. I think the only pitching prospects who will go to the PCL will be the guys who need to develop or refine their secondary pitches. of the current crop of prospects i think only kelly could see significant time at tucson. erlin and weiland already have plus-plus secondary stuff.
as for hitters, i think you send the guys who are great fastball hitters (blanks, darnell, cabrera, etc.) to the PCL just so they can get work against guys who lead with their offspeed stuff.
AA san antonio is really an excellent place for guys to do the majority of their development because it is a hitter’s league, yet the missions play in an extreme pitcher’s park (not unlike petco), making it great for both evaluation and player development. the PCL, at least for the last couple years, has been pretty devoid of talent across the board. many serious prospects either skip the PCL entirely or they just go there to warm up for their midseason callup/work on a specific facet of their game. for rizzo it was bad news because it covered up his weaknesses (the inability to hit a live fastball) and overhyped his strengths (teeing off on bad pitches). he was too young to make the bigs, but already performing at a near elite level in AA. in hindsight i think you’d rather have him repeat AA, and i think the current regime has learned from rizzo’s mishandling.
iheartyourfart - January 24, 2012
Well they're not going to be in Tucson much longer
One way or another this is our AAA team’s final year there. They’ll be sold to either the Boise group or the El Paso group before opening day. And both parties are building new ballparks that can be adjusted to compensate to give players a more “PETCO-like” experience.
athletics68 - January 25, 2012
i don't think he just means tucson
but rather the PCL as a whole is very light on pitching. guys with mlb quality stuff tend to get rushed past AAA these days. more marginal guys like leblanc get stashed in the PCL until they can develop into something useful. this leads to a league that is not only weak in pitching, but full of guys who throw a ton of junk and offspeed stuff to compensate for their lack of quality fastballs.
iheartyourfart - January 25, 2012
The Padres = Mola Ram
The Reds = Some poor sacrificial sap without a heart
AIChief - January 24, 2012
Great post!
you’re funny
i like you
yleviticus - January 26, 2012
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