With the lack of player movement this offseason (well at least compared to the KT years) and the promise from multiple front office officials that the Padres payroll will start with a 4 this season I decided to try and figure out how much money the Padres had to play with to fill their remaining 3 holes they had left on their roster:
|
Pos |
Name |
2010 |
|
C |
Hundley |
0.41 |
|
1B |
Gonzalez |
4.75 |
|
2B |
Eckstein |
1 |
|
3B |
Headley |
0.41 |
|
SS |
Cabrera |
0.41 |
|
RF |
Venable |
0.41 |
|
CF |
||
|
LF |
Blanks |
0.41 |
|
SP |
Young |
6.25 |
|
SP |
Corriea |
3.6 |
|
SP |
Latos |
0.41 |
|
SP |
||
|
SP |
Richard |
0.41 |
|
CL |
Adams |
1.25 |
|
8th |
Poreda |
0.41 |
|
7th |
Gregerson |
0.41 |
|
LRP |
Thatcher |
0.41 |
|
RP |
Russell |
0.41 |
|
RP |
Webb |
0.41 |
|
RP |
Liz |
0.43 |
|
Bench |
Gwynn |
0.43 |
|
Bench |
Salazar |
0.43 |
|
Bench |
Ryan |
0.43 |
|
Bench |
Denorfia |
0.41 |
|
Bench |
||
|
Total |
23.86 |
The list assumes that both Kouz and Bell would be traded, I really did this for two reasons:
The names in the bullpen are pretty interchangeable, the Padres have enough young cheap arms in their system to fill any hole for pretty much the league minimum. Also I'm guessing that Denorfia can be replaced by either Durango or Huffman.
So if my assumptions are correct the Padres have 3 positions to fill and at the very least have $16.9 mil to spend. I'm guessing the fifth and final bench spot will be filled by a back up IF with 0-3 years of major league experience and making the league minimum, so really the only players left on the Padres X-mas list are a middle of the rotation type pitcher and a CF and they have about $16.5 mil to spend on them. At $8 mil a pop and room in next year's budget (only Adams, Mujica, and Gwynn would be eligible for arbitration next year) The padres do have some room to possibly sign some mid level guys to multi-year contracts if the right deals came along.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
3 recs | 76 comments
Thanks for doing this.
I wouldnt say its a sure thing that both Kouz and Heath will be dealt (though i wouldn’t necessarily be surprised), but even if we keep both of them we should still have at least 10M to spend.
Dugout Dude - December 22, 2009
start placing bets
I hate to say it, but I would easily bet that the Padres’ payroll will not start with a 4. The only way this could happen is if our payroll increases to that amount via a trade, and I really don’t see that happening. Now, for some reason, if the Padres are playing decent, over .500 ball by the trade deadline, there’s a chance we’ll reach that mysterious number that starts with a 4. Maybe I’m being too pessimistic. If I were Jed, I would spend most of my remaining resources on a pitcher. Pineiro would probably be the best option.
recorddigger - December 22, 2009
Piniero is only a good option
If he’ll take a 1 year deal. He’s a little scary because he was very dependent on his defense that year. The Padres shouldn’t have a bad defense, but I don’t know that it’s enough to carry a pitcher when we have a number of power arm options that get outs with K’s instead of good fielding.
Wonko - December 22, 2009
Ok how much you want to bet?
Sam (sdsuaztec4) - December 23, 2009
I'm already buying the first round after the GM bet we made...BUT
I’m willing to double-down if you are. Opening Day payroll will NOT start with a 4.
Drama - December 23, 2009
You're on, Cor.
Sam (sdsuaztec4) - December 25, 2009
$20
I ain’t a rich man, but it’s always good to place a bet you hope to lose. 20 bucks down that the opening day payroll will not start with a 4, and that magic number will not be met throughout the season, unless the team is playing over-.500 ball mid-season. You on?
recorddigger - December 24, 2009
Yes.
and this
makes no senseSam (sdsuaztec4) - December 24, 2009
the bet is on
and I obviously want to lose becuase I hope the Padres do increase their payroll to that number starting with a 4.
recorddigger - December 24, 2009
Let's not make it about e-peen or dollar-peen
I hope you don’t just want them spend extra money so you feel like they’re trying. It wouldn’t be exciting if they just gave themselves raises until they reached $40m.
Axion - December 24, 2009
Lets see....
Crisp to the A’s still has been done, and last I heard he wanted to be either an A or a Padre. So still there is a chance at that. Plus I would love to see if the Padres could get either a Sheets or Bedard for the rotation. Keep Bell unless they get a solid haul for him.
So:
Crisp: 3-4 Mil for CF
Sheets: 10 Mil (Bedard 7-8 mil)
Bell: 3-4 million
Thats either 16-18 million. The Padres either can compete or they have valuable trade assets into the deadline.
AirmanSD - December 22, 2009
I should add that Moorad also said that it could reach close to 50 million. Which would give the Padres even more wiggle room.
AirmanSD - December 22, 2009
Crisp
Had some travel issues, that’s why that hasn’t happened yet. But, he’s definitely going to the A’s. Bedard and Sheets won’t be coming to San Diego.
Wonko - December 22, 2009
I heard we offered him $3m
and the A’s just said, “Okay, $5m” and we frowned.
Axion - December 23, 2009
Now that Cameron is out of the picture, I certainly don’t know where we could get a center fielder. I think Crisp to the A’s is almost complete, so let’s just forget that. I would love to see BJ Upton here though I know the Rays are too high on him unless we traded Bell for him, but that won’t happen. I would love to see what Sheets has though he is asking for way too much money for someone who pitched almost nothing last year. Bedard would be interesting, I don’t mind spending on him as long as he doesn’t pull a Jim Edmonds (aka. claim he is healthy and then just disappear)
pad_619 - December 22, 2009
Doesn't Bedard have a history of injuries though?
Wouldn’t the money we spend (which we’re obviously being really conservative with) be better somewhere else than someone who doesn’t miss 1 to 2 months every year?
TheFan09 - December 22, 2009
Hey, we threw the bones on Mark Prior and look how that turned out.
I’d prefer to see Ben Sheets, but there again, injury risk. We’re not necessarily looking for a number 1 or number 2, but boy would it be fun to have a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation again. And I would not be opposed to letting Gwynn or Durango play center, which would make Coco Crisp redundant and save a little dough. If we are indeed going to spend as much as we say we are going to spend, the above solution with Crisp and Bedard/Sheets (and keeping Heath Bell) looks good.
StrangeBroP25 - December 22, 2009
I would love to get BJ Upton...
I just dont see the Rays moving him. (plus the cost wouldn’t make sense for the Padres). I know that Injuries are a key part with both names I mentioned, but they both have a lot of upside as well. And as I noted at the bottom they come with the added bonus of if we are not competing, we have valuable trade chips for the deadline.
If Crisp isnt an option then it really makes upgrading CF a major concern. I dont see another fit out there that would be an upgrade over Gywnn/Venable.
AirmanSD - December 22, 2009
Sheets is reportedly asking for $12 million.
The earliest that Bedard could pitch would be May…but some say he might not even be available in the first half.
We didn’t give Prior anything near what either one of those guys is gonna get.
Drama - December 23, 2009
Sheets wants 12 mil, Heath would bite on what, 3.5 you reckon?
And I’m well aware that Prior made a fraction of the money Sheets would, but the principle is that the Padres aren’t against gambling on guys with injury history. The gamble would be bigger in this case, but the payoff would be a guy who is roughly analogous to Jake Peavy— flyball pitcher who throws lots of K’s.
StrangeBroP25 - December 23, 2009
What about a guy like Gary Matthews Jr. From the Angels?
They would pay most of the salary and he isnt too bad of a guy- he hits .275 with some power and good speed.
Balls and Strikes - December 29, 2009
ew
CurbEnthusiasm - December 29, 2009
Mike Adams
I’m pretty sure I did the analysis of the salary numbers earlier in the offseason and decided that Adams had accumulated the service time to reach arbitration. If so, his salary will be higher than the one listed here.
Also, with all the Padres prospects making their way through the minors, I don’t think it makes sense to sign anyone to multiyear deals. The last thing you want is to be forced into trading a player with a high salary because he’s blocking someone that is probably better than him.
Finally, all signs currently point to Bell and Kouz being here, so it seems foolish or possible self serving to assume that they won’t be here.
Wonko - December 22, 2009
It seems like Kouz is the Padres main trade target this offseason...
I think teams are just trying to low ball them. I have a feeling Kouz will get moved once a few more 3B fall into place (now that Atkins has signed it might move quickly) and teams might be willing to pay a bit more to fill their hole at 3B.
It just does not makes sense to keep both Kouz and Headley on the 25 man roster next season, Headley does not have the bat or glove to stay in LF and is younger, cheaper and a better fit for petco than Kouz so it just makes sense to keep him and move him to 3B.
It might make a bit more sense to keep Bell if the Padres feel like they can compete in 2010 and they don’t get any great offers for him. I just don’t see them keeping a closer around when they can move him for probably a pretty decent prospect and they have a cheaper in house replacement.
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
The only reason
To trade Kouz is if you will get value in return. It still makes sense to keep on the roster. It creates a nice 4 man outfield rotation to keep everyone fresh and always have a decent hitter off the bench. Salary wise, Kouz is easily within the Padres price range so no problem there. It doesn’t mean I still don’t have problems with the guy’s hitting, because I do, but I don’t think it necessarily solves any problem or makes sense to trade him for the sake of trading him.
The Padres are in a nice situation with all their potential trade candidates. They are all affordable enough to keep and they don’t represent such a glut at a position that it forces a trade (because, let’s admit it, Savior hasn’t done anything that has shown that he must be our 3B of the future).
Wonko - December 23, 2009
I agree that Headley has not shown us that he must be our 3B
but what he has shown is that he can’t be out LF, especially if he would be replacing Blanks or Venable. Unless Kouz and Headley are platooning at 3B the team will be worse off with both of them on the roster.
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
Headley should only be our stopgap solution
maybe Darnell or someone of that sort could come up later this season, or even the next.
TheFan09 - December 23, 2009
To be honest I dont really care who they pick to play 3rd
I just dont want headley in LF when there are better options currently on the roster.
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
I think you are overreacting to the idea of Headley playing LF.
Wonko - December 23, 2009
Assuming the Padres don't Trade Adrian and Blanks does not move to 1B
You would rather have:
Headley in LF, Venable/Gwynn in CF and Blanks in RF with Kouz at 3B
Rather than:
Blanks in LF, FA/Trade in CF, Venable in RF and Headley at 3B?
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
Thos all sound like fine options
I prefer to have the one that has the most depth though until I know the details of these trades and FA signings.
Wonko - December 23, 2009
I would like Venable in right, Gwynn or Durango in center, and whoever they care to put in left
Could even be Blanks for all I care.
StrangeBroP25 - December 23, 2009
Wow Durango in CF
There goes our OF defense.
Wonko - December 23, 2009
Oh please no
Darnell is an awful, awful 3B.
Wonko - December 23, 2009
How's Allan Dykstra progressing in the farm system?
Weren’t there vague musings that he could be the answer at third?
StrangeBroP25 - December 23, 2009
Lol
Hilarious.
Wonko - December 23, 2009
He sucks worse than Antonelli at hitting right now
Sam (sdsuaztec4) - December 24, 2009
I keep saying
that Headley will go down in the annals of Padres history as Sean Burroughs 2.0.
TheThinGwynn - December 23, 2009
Dude...
Drama - December 24, 2009
you are right
Adams has 3.019 years of MLB service.
Ron Mexico - December 23, 2009
The SOKP is not pleased
eastbaysd - December 22, 2009
Did you miss the part where Mike Adams is our closer?
Wonko - December 22, 2009
Kind of depressing
Breaking it down like this reminds me of looking at my bills and realizing how broke I am. Kouz is like HBO: nice to have but we can’t afford him right now. We’ll go with basic cable (Headley) and get our movies on Netflix (scrap heap CF).
anthony - December 23, 2009
I like this comparison.
TheThinGwynn - December 23, 2009
Great job Steve
Where did you get the numbers?
And I agree that they don’t make it to the 40 mil number. Just imagine if they do trade Adrian. We’ll have a payroll under 25 mil! Major League Baseball, where revenue sharing really works!
L Magico - December 23, 2009
Thanks!
I got the numbers from Cots.
To predict what guys with only 0-3 years of MLB service will make I used the following:
0-2 years: $0.41 mil
2-3 years $0.43 mil
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
Yeah, Cots seems to be the most accurate
Someone from the Red Sox board posted a nice article about how the “revenue sharing” works.
href=“http://www.overthemonster.com/2009/12/22/1212797/lets-talk-about-luxury-tax” >
I’m actually excited for this upcoming team and how young and promising they are going to be (with Adrian). But what I don’t like is FO saying numbers like 40 and even 50 mil when it really seems that they are not going to be close to that number. Just don’t say a number because we(fans) start to expect that and when it doesn’t come through, we feel bamboozled!
But I guess its all part of the plan right?
L Magico - December 23, 2009
Seems like you should have included Kouz and Bell
otherwise it’s really not the state of the Padres payroll. But otherwise good work.
I think there is a real good chance both of them are with us opening day.
jbox - December 23, 2009
40-50 million... really?
I don’t think the payroll will be that high for the players on the roster… maybe if you take into account salaries of other players or other expenditures or benefits or fruit baskets or something… but I do not see how we raise the salary that much given the parts we have from the end of last year.
1. We do not need an outside SP unless it is a really sweet longterm deal.
If we are not going to compete to win the division, it does not make sense to spend $5 million or perhaps more to buy a pitcher for one year. I would rather use our young arms who showed promise last year. AND WE HAVE A LOT OF THEM.
2. If we trade Kouz or Headley (which we should), we will get something back (probably not a veteran-type player who costs a lot). The Kouz/Headley hole will be filled by Headley or Blanks. I think we are all happy with that.
3. Centerfielder – Assuming you do not like our current players who are there, this could be anyone, but again… if we are not going to push for the division this year, why sign someone expensive unless it is a nice longterm contract. So, I assume it will be a younger player who is cheap.
4. Closer – Bell, let’s say $5 million or someone we already have who is cheap.
With that being said, we are MAYBE at $30 million. So, we could try to sign someone to an extension. Or, we could wait until the middle of the season and try to arrange one or more trades that help us. Maybe something relating to Adrian.
Anyways, I do not see how we spend (wisely) to get the payroll that high this year in just player salaries.
The free agents still out there are not particularly impressive considering our needs.
I would love to hear ideas about what we would realistically do to get to $45 mill… sign Adrian to a front-loaded extension?? It would maintain his trade value!!!
-Zen Blade
Zen Blade - December 23, 2009
Need to add the arbitration numbers
But Bell, Kouz, Adams all will be higher than what is stated. I am guessing those 3 will come out to $10M which puts us at $33M.
Ron Mexico - December 23, 2009
FYI
Arod 2010 salary is schedule to be at $32M base.
Ron Mexico - December 23, 2009
$32M = sad.
“base” = really sad.
Drama - December 23, 2009
some of the perks
including ballpark suites, penthouse suites on the road, etc. but include
$6M bonus for each HR milestone (660, 714, 755 and breaking the record).
Also if the Yankees decide to use him in an ad campaign he is paid for that.
Ron Mexico - December 23, 2009
hmmm Cots has Adams as having 2.161 years of MLB service
but the your right the UT said he was arbitration eligible.
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
Ok I fixed Adams and gave him the same salary as Bell had this year.
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
here is the updated link on Cots
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/10/2010-arbitration-eligibles.html
Ron Mexico - December 23, 2009
Gracias
Grey Suit - December 23, 2009
Looking at the Yankees Payroll
yeah, we all know they get the best FA each year, but what makes it staggering is, not only are those guys making huge amounts of money, well above what anyone else can pay..but how much their "role’ players are making compared to around the league.
Petitie is making 11.5 to be a 4th starter
Cano $10M
N.. Johnson $5.5 to be a back up 1b platoon DH.
Ron Mexico - December 23, 2009
Coco
From the AP:
Drama - December 23, 2009
Okay, so that's out.
So where does that leave us? Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson, Josh Anderson, Rocco Baldelli? Or an in-house guy?
Hell, if we wanted to go out of our minds for a little while we could sign Khalil Greene and move Everth to the outfield.
Totally unrelated— As far as starting pitching, we don’t have a snowball’s chance with Aroldis Chapman, do we?
StrangeBroP25 - December 23, 2009
we've got the money to spend
Why not take a financial risk on Chapman? He would most certainly increase ticket sales and spice up a pretty promising year, all things considered, for the young Padres.
recorddigger - December 24, 2009
the slippery slope that is Khalil
starting Khalil is a very bad idea but signing him would be a very good move. The guy is really fascinating. He’s got as much raw natural talent ass anyone in the game (he holds the all-time SEC hits record), but his anxiety is a very serious issue. So, Khalil could possibly thrive in a low pressure situation, i.e.- with a team with a sorry payroll like the Pads. Think about it- he’s a fan favorite, he would be a hell of lot better as a utility infielder than E. Gonzalez & Rodriguez, and he might even thrive in the new, youthful Padres clubhouse. If he starts hitting a spark, then platoon him with Cabrera. He probably will sign for close to the league minimum, if at all, that is, if he still wants to play ball. He may want to literally go back to the farm. To put it in perspective, Albert Pujols was very very impressed with Khalil’s talents, but once he left the batting cage and entered the field, it all went substantially downhill.
recorddigger - December 24, 2009
"sign Khalil Greene and move Everth to the outfield."
I spit all over my monitors when reading this.
Axion - December 24, 2009
That was my intent. It wasn't hot coffee, I hope.
StrangeBroP25 - December 24, 2009
No, you misunderstood
He just started hawking loogies at his monitor.
Wonko - December 25, 2009
from the moment I saw ECab play I knew he would be a good CF
- good arm – athletic as hell and of course great speed.
texpadre - December 24, 2009
That doesn't necessarily translate
Durango is even faster than Cabrera and he plays a poor CF.
Wonko - December 25, 2009
Even if it does translate, not a solution
It would obviate the need for a center fielder, true, but we don’t have another shortstop who can start. Signing Khalil wouldn’t even help THAT problem, because that puts him in the pressure-cooker of starting again.
Only a handful of shortstops were available free agents this year. The ones that are still unsigned are:
Orlando Cabrera
Juan Castro
Ramon Martinez
Miguel Tejada
Khalil Greene
All of those guys are platoon shortstops or stopgap solutions at best. No, I think we would be better served trying to find a legitimate center fielder.
StrangeBroP25 - December 25, 2009
Hey, The A's have soured on Scott Hairston
And they need a 3rd basemen since dealing Brett Wallace. The guys on the A’s board seem to be infatuated with Headley for some reason. Maybe a trade there?
padmadfan - December 28, 2009
I mentioned this before
That if the A’s don’t want him we’ll take him. Headley seems like a lot to pay. Savior is young, talented, affordable and under contract for a few more years. Hairston is only talented and while not expensive, not nearly as cheap as Headley and not under contract for nearly as long. Headley has upside, With Hairston you can only hope he stays the same. Basically, I’m saying that best case scenario is that this works for 2010, but it’s probably going to look bad after that. That doesn’t sound to me like a deal the organization would like to make. But, I still would like my Shrek back if no one is going to use him.
Wonko - December 29, 2009
Getting Shrek back would be great
but I’m not sure who in the Padres system the A’s would want for him.
Grey Suit - December 29, 2009
I'd be willing to deal Kouz or Headley
Obviously, they can’t get any of their arms back. They might want to offer up Rajai Davis, a fleet CF who played over his head at the tail end of last season. I don’t think it’d be a good idea. We’d be buying high on him and I prefer to buy low. Scott was injured and that was the whole reason for his lack of production last year. If they’re willing to part with Scott we should do what it takes to get him and his 25 homer potential. I don’t know Savior, have to look that up.
The A’s got so many dang OF’s and we’ve got so many 3rd basemen there’s got to be a fit there.
padmadfan - December 30, 2009
Who do we think we'll pick up to fill the super-utility role?
I read that Felipe Lopez is available for ~$3.5M, can he play both 2nd and short adequately enough to justify that money?
IputtheYinTony - December 29, 2009
I think he wants a starting job
And I hear St. Louis has come calling.
Wonko - December 29, 2009
Thats too much for a bench player
when your team has a $40 mil payroll.
Grey Suit - December 29, 2009
Alfredo Amezega
He’s a super sub, can play nearly every infield position and would cost maybe 1.5? Maybe less?
padmadfan - December 30, 2009
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