Here's what people don't always understand about sample sizes. At this point in his career, we are not observing a random small sample of Trevor Hoffman's pitching performances. We are observing a trend, and the trend is telling us that he is done.
Put it this way. Baseball Reference tells us that Trevor's appeared in 890 games. If we were to randomly take seven of those appearances and try to piece together what sort of pitcher Trevor Hoffman was, then we're looking at much too small a sample size. If we want to make a decision now about what sort of pitcher Trevor Hoffman will be in the future, we actually run the risk of looking at too large a sample.
We cannot go back to 1998 to determine what kind of pitcher Trevor Hoffman will be in 2008.
As people who are statistically inclined, we must always be looking at what the statistics are actually telling us and what they aren't telling us. A context needs to continually be applied or else we'll run the risk of being a bunch of Joe Morgans... spouting random "facts".
Let's put it another way. If Trevor Hoffman were some sort of save factory and suddenly started spitting out a defective product, our engineers wouldn't look at how well the factory was running 2 years ago to determine if something needs to be fixed. They'd look at the most recent production and make a determination based on that.
We've all seen it. It's now plain as day. Trevor Hoffman is done.
Boilerplate: When Trevor is elected into the Hall of Fame I will be cheering as loud as anyone. I will probably cry as I think of all of the terrific memories that Trevor provided and I will do my best to explain to Elliott exactly how exciting and magical the song Hell's Bells is despite my not owning any other recordings by AC/DC. I'll talk about Trevor's changeup and how Trevor learned to adjust after the velocity on his fastball declined. I'll use it as an example of the fact that limitations and obstacles can be overcome. Trevor Hoffman is a great person and the greatest closer of all time.
2 recs | 31 comments
Dragin' it out
I hate it when HOFers drag out their careers. Always better to go out on top.
Jonny Dub - April 24, 2008
I'm looking at my Trevor Time clock
and I’m really, really sad.
Winfield's Ghost - April 24, 2008
Clock
Mine doesn’t work anymore.
Jonny Dub - April 24, 2008
Mine seems a bit slow and can't locate
Winfield's Ghost - April 24, 2008
(recommend)
TheGrandHatching - April 24, 2008
Just popping in from Amazin' Avenue
Long time SD resident, former season ticket holder at Petco.
Trevor Hoffman is done. Heath Bell is a much better option than Trevor at this point. It almost seems like you know what is going to happen when he enters the game these days.
That said, Molina just went down and got that one.
future - April 24, 2008
Bell
is still only going to pitch 1 inning. To me, the difference between the 8th and 9th is only what part of the lineup he faces.
You’d still need someone to pitch whatever inning Trevor doesn’t, and the rest of our bullpen sure looks “done” right now.
(This is not a defense of Trevor, but an indictment of the bullpen.)
Dalton - April 24, 2008
this is true too
unfortunately, as poetic as it might be for Trevor to set-up is successor, I’m not confident that Trevor could get it done in the 8th at this point. Trevor needs some significant adjustment to his approach and he’s just not at a point in his career where that kind of adjustment comes readily.
Dex - April 24, 2008
But he's what we've got.
We need to remember that our offense didn’t give Trevor much to work with last night. Or anything, really, this season.
Trevor may very well be done. Maybe. But unless someone is seriously advocating making trades to shore up a bullpen for a team on pace to win 79 games this year, then Trevor is our closer for the rest of the season, for better or worse.
He’s playing like crap on a team that’s playing like crap.
Dalton - April 24, 2008
2nd'd
Everyone else, with the exception of Bell and maybe Ledezma, has been unreliable.
Axion - April 24, 2008
I am not sure...
if I don’t believe Trevor really is done, or I just don’t want to believe it.
I just can’t make the arguments to support him any longer, not after last night.
Axion - April 24, 2008
I agree...I'm not even depressed anymore, just numb.
TheVinylCrocodile - April 24, 2008
chin up!
Trevor may be “done”, but we’re gonna ride this train… straight to hell!
Dex - April 24, 2008
hopefully we'll get there before I take the AP test
TheVinylCrocodile - April 24, 2008
which AP test?
jbox says there are two things that I’m good at.
1. looking things up in a dictionary or phone book very quickly
2. standardized tests
Dex - April 24, 2008
AP European history..
umm. The test is two weeks exactly from tomorrow and I’m on a frickin’ website all depressed cuz everyone thinks Trevor Hoffman is done. Even my math teacher mentioned this morning and I wanted to weep.
TheVinylCrocodile - April 24, 2008
I've spent more time
thinking about the test than I have actually studying for it. If anything, the test is making me really sad. But I’ve realized that I have to study and pass cuz I can’t let some idiot in my class do better than me. I’M ASIAN AND ITS A MUST. I CAN’T LET SOME BLOND GIRL BEAT ME.
TheVinylCrocodile - April 24, 2008
Don't freak out.
If I am correct, you are a sophomore and this is your first AP test. I was in the same boat for AP Euro not all that long ago- freaking out and thinking that my life was going to be over if I did not pass, and as a result of all the freaking out, getting zero studying done.
You just have to relax and know that if you put in work during the school year, you will most likely be alright. That being said, take it from me: calm down and break studying into one hour a night sections up until the test day (or, break up study sessions by topics). Do a manageable amount of productive work every night from here on out and you will take care of business on test day.
The AP tests get easier as you go on (I went 6-for-6 in high school on AP tests) because once the first one is out of the way, you know what to expect and you stop worrying as much. Good luck and eat a good breakfast on the day of the test (seriously- it’s a cliche, but that shit works).
P.S. If in doubt- Henry VIII.
JBRO - April 24, 2008
Thanks...I'll try
You’ve given me more advice than my teacher has.
TheVinylCrocodile - April 25, 2008
you forgot
you make a great Orange Whip
Sammy G - April 25, 2008
I think Dex put it perfectly
when he said this:
Phantom - April 24, 2008
I suck
at blockquotes. But please feel free to attribute any mention of Brian Giles’ peen to Dex.
Phantom - April 24, 2008
well put Dex
I await the inevitable UT retrospective: “Trevor’s Time”
Billy Almon - April 24, 2008
It's sad that an era is ending
Trevor is the last active link to Tony, that’s what makes it even sadder for me. For the last 25 years its been Tony and/or Trevor. When you thought of the Padres you thought of one or both of those guys. It’s time to move on, I know that. This team belongs to Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez now, and that is the way it should be. We have some studs on the farm and some young guys on the big club who are going to make the future a bright one. But we are taking it on the chin this year, and that just magnifies Trevor’s current struggles (even though he’s hardly the only one sucking right now). But there is no place to hide as a closer, and closing is what Trevor does. When you can no longer do the only thing you can do, it’s time to move on.
From now until he calls it quits, I am going to celebrate the career of Trevor Hoffman. I’m not going to mourn him, I’m not going to diss him. The team is going nowhere this year, Trevor isn’t the only reason for that. So whenever Bud makes the call, I’m not going to say “oh man, not again.” I’m going to say “there he goes, the greatest of all time.” Can’t wait for the statue unveiling and the next HOF open thread on GLB.
sdgaucho - April 24, 2008
I just can't get behind the...
“show some emotion and heart” complaints. Emotion and heart aren’t going to make these guys better players or make them execute properly, and I honestly don’t think for a second that any one on the team is getting a kick out of letting the rest of the team down. Nobody wants to be the guy who loses the game.
I don’t think he’s done either, but I just don’t want him out there anymore. We may as well bring up Antonelli, too. As Giles reportedly said, “Uh-oh, our 2nd baseman is batting 8th again.”
Axion - April 24, 2008
Call me "on the fence" about Trevor
I’m not sure what the point of the BP link was, nor which statistics are “telling” at this point.
TheGrandHatching - April 24, 2008
The 'factory/machine' analogy...
This is another way of saying ‘what have you done for me lately?’. We’re seeing an investment break down, and while I’m sure there’ll be some people who think it’s inhuman to dehumanize Trevor, I believe it’s fair to extrapolate the machine analogy further, and say that you don’t keep a broken machine running just because it’s been in the factory for 20 years, or the people in the factory all like using it.
If you’re the Padres, you run a business, and to maximize your potential you need every component in your company running at full capacity. There’s two undeniable truths about the fans, too—they love a winner, and they seem to forgive pretty quickly. If Hoffman’s ultimately clogging up the path to success, Buddy and/or KT need to step in and have that awkward conversation at some point. The fans will forgive them, Trevor will have a teary press conference, the fans will be accepting of the decision, and life will go on.
Basically, just go put on Ben Folds’ song ‘Fred Jones Pt. 2,’ it seems to sum up the matter rather well. (also works for Andruw Jones)
California Penal - April 24, 2008
The line between “small sample” and “trend” is dangerous. But if you want to proclaim Hoffman DONE, it’s going to take more than the usual stats from the first month of the season. Has anyone done Pitch f/x work on Hoffman? Is his fastball significantly slower? Are his other pitches moving significantly differently from in 2007? That’s the type of work I’d like to see.
Sky Kalkman - April 25, 2008
I just don't like people throwing around "small sample"
It’s not a get out of jail free card. It’s absolutely not a random small sample that we’re watching. It’s a sample of his most recent production, given that he is in his 40s, has been through multiple surgeries and has statistically not been our best option out of the bullpen for several years.
The small sample size argument suggests baseball players are roulette wheels when they are absolutely not. A roulette wheel bases its sample on the idea that it will remain consistent for an infinite number of spins. There is no way to spin the Trevor Hoffman wheel and have the marble fall into 1998.
Dex - April 25, 2008
I don't have the numbers in front of me
but when I was looking at his numbers from this season, most of his peripheral stats are pretty similar to his career numbers. There were a few things that stood out though. His Line Drive rate was at 8%, which is ridiculously low. If any pitcher could maintain that, they will have success. At the same time, his groundball percentage is up from his normal numbers. Also, his BABIP is sitting around .320, which is a little high. What this suggests to me (which is reflected in a lot of what I see watching the games), is that overall he is pitching well, but nothing is going his way. A lot of hits just dropping in. The formula seems to be, a an easy out or two, followed by a bloop hit. After that, who knows. His HR/FB rate is really high, around 17-18%. Ouch. Then again, he has only given up two homeruns, so that reflects a low sample size (yes). The other thing that really stood out is his walk rate, which was almost four times his normal numbers. It seems to me that Trevor isn’t getting many of the close calls so far this season, so if his control isn’t spot on, he is getting in trouble. But I could just be a homer.
A little off topic…I have actually thought that the umps seem to be blowing a lot of important close calls against us. Not all of them, that call with Adrian and the collision was great. It crossed my mind though, do you think some of this guys hold a grudge for us getting one of them suspended?
osbug - April 25, 2008
I agree that claiming “small sample” is not as strong as some people use it as. It merely puts you back into the limbo of saying “I don’t know” and requiring further evidence. Since I trust you, Dex, I know you’re not proclaiming Hoffman done based on a month of bad stats. You’re including few years of declining performance, old age, and probably some amateur scouting information on Hoffman’s “stuff”. I’m cool with that.
I just don’t want other people going around claiming that Chase Utley crushing 10 homers in a month is a new “trend”, or that Jonathan Sanchez striking out 15 batters per 9 innings is a new “trend”, or that the Orioles playing better than .500 baseball is a new “trend”. Trends imply future performance and you need more information than just a small sample to claim something’s a trend.
**
Here’s another view. Hoffman’s 2008 performance is a small sample. But to claim it’s a small sample of his career performance is folly, as you pointed out. It’s a small sample of his current talent level. Do very good relievers tend to produce samples this bad? No, but it does happen occasionally, because there are so many pitchers producing samples. And now we’re back to the point about needing additional information.
Sky Kalkman - April 25, 2008
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